2012 U.S. presidential election: Wikis


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United States presidential election, 2012
November 6, 2012
Proposed Electoral College 2012.svg
One projection of the Electoral College map for the 2012, 2016, and 2020 elections.[1]


The United States presidential election of 2012 is the next United States presidential election, to be held on Tuesday, November 6, 2012. It will be the 57th quadrennial presidential election in which presidential electors, who will actually elect the President and the Vice President of the United States on December 17, 2012, will be chosen. Democratic President Barack Obama will be eligible to run for his second and final term during this election.

The 2012 presidential election will coincide with the United States Senate elections where 33 races will be occurring as well as the United States House of Representatives elections to elect the members for the 113th Congress. The election will also encompass eleven gubernatorial races as well as many state legislature races.


Electoral College changes

The 2010 Census will ultimately decide how the electoral map will be laid out for the 2012 election, but population projections based upon Census updates give an estimate of how the Electoral College vote apportionment will change. The Census occurs every ten years and is the basis for electoral vote reapportionment based on relative state population changes. According to a study based on the 2009 population estimates, the likely changes are as follows.[2]

Safe Democratic States (Democratic 2000, 2004, 2008)

  • Illinois - 1 fewer vote
  • Massachusetts - 1 fewer vote
  • Michigan - 1 fewer vote
  • Minnesota - 1 fewer vote
  • New Jersey - 1 fewer vote
  • New York - 1 fewer vote
  • Pennsylvania - 1 fewer vote
  • Washington - 1 more vote

Safe Republican States (Republican 2000, 2004, 2008)

  • Arizona - 1 more votes
  • Georgia - 1 more vote
  • Louisiana - 1 fewer vote
  • South Carolina - 1 more vote
  • Texas - 4 more votes
  • Utah - 1 more vote

Swing States

  • Florida - 1 more vote
  • Iowa - 1 fewer vote
  • Nevada - 1 more vote
  • Ohio - 2 fewer votes

States in green represent states that are predicted to gain votes. States in maroon represent states that are predicted to lose votes. Based on the 2008 presidential election results, this would give the Democratic Party a net loss of seven electoral votes, for a national total of 358, and the Republican Party a net gain of seven electoral votes, for a national total of 180.

Election changes


Republican Party Ohio plan

The Republican Party decided in 2008 to implement an Ohio plan that would divide the primary states in their nominating process into three tiers: early states, small states, and large states. It would allow the early states to retain their status and tradition of being states that vote first. By the end of February 2012, nineteen small states (in terms of the Electoral College) would be allowed to vote. In March, the last states, the largest ones, would then have their primaries.[3]

Presidential conventions

The 2012 Republican National Convention is scheduled take place the week of August 27, 2012.[4]In February 2010, the Republican National Committee announced it had narrowed its list of possible locations for the event to three cities: Phoenix, Salt Lake City, and Tampa.[5]

As of March 2010, no dates have been scheduled for the 2012 Democratic National Convention. Charlotte[6] and Dallas[7] have shown interest in bidding to be the host site for the event.

Tampa[8][9] and Phoenix[10] have expressed interest in vying to be the host site for either party's 2012 convention.

Considering previous national conventions, it is likely that parties will avoid their conventions coinciding with the 2012 Summer Olympics in London, which will run from July 27 to August 12. There has been a trend in recent cycles toward holding the conventions later in the summer.

Speculated candidates

The following are individuals who are or have been the subject of speculation in prominent media sources as being possible presidential contenders in the 2012 election. The speculation may stem from noted media analysts and commentators, or from actions or comments made by the individuals themselves — which suggest the possibility of a presidential run — as reported in reliable media sources.

Speculated Democratic Party candidates

  • President Barack Obama is eligible for a second term. Since 1972, every incumbent President eligible for re-election has been so nominated by his party.

Some liberal Democrats have suggested a potential primary challenge owing to frustration at Obama's action on the War in Afghanistan as well as on single-payer health care, public option, Medicare and Medicaid expansion, and removal of the health insurance industry antitrust exemption made during attempts at healthcare reform.[11][12][13]

While the President has made no formal announcement or taken official actions regarding a re-election campaign, Politico reported in February 2010 that a number of his top advisors had begun "quietly laying the groundwork for the 2012 reelection campaign." [14][15]

Speculated Republican Party candidates

No one has formally announced his or her candidacy for the Republican Party nomination. The following are individuals that have been speculated about as possible candidates.

Speculated Libertarian Party candidates

No one has formally announced his or her candidacy for the Libertarian Party nomination. The following are individuals that are or have been speculated about as possible candidates.

Independent candidates

Speculated independent candidates

The following are individuals that are or have been speculated about as possible independent candidates.

See also


  1. ^ Benson, Clark (2007-12-27). "Displacement of Katrina Victims Still Has Impact:Apportionment in 2010". Polidata. http://www.polidata.org/census/wprgl26a.pdf. Retrieved 2008-03-21. 
  2. ^ "Congressional Apportionment: 2010 Projections Based Upon State Estimates as of July 1, 2009". Clark H. Bensen. 2009-12-23. http://www.polidata.org/news.htm#20091223. Retrieved 2010-02-02. 
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  9. ^ Jackovics, Ted (November 5, 2009) "Democrats ask Tampa to apply to host convention", The Tampa Tribune. Retrieved on November 13, 2009.
  10. ^ Wong, Scott; Berry, Jahna (January 14, 2010) "Phoenix vies to host GOP, Dems' 2012 conventions", AZcentral.com/12 News. Retrieved January 14, 2010.
  11. ^ "'Countdown with Keith Olbermann' for Thursday, September 3, 2009". MSNBC. 2009-09-03. Archived from the original on 2009-12-17. http://www.webcitation.org/5m5sjRQqS. Retrieved 2009-12-17. "No—no, no. Because if he's compromise and everything so far, and as self-defeating as it might be, the progressive caucus and progressives would abandon him, if necessary, if this would be the policy of this administration into 2012. If it's necessary to find somebody else to run against him, I think they‘d do it no matter how destructive that might seem at face value." 
  12. ^ Fisher, Max (2009-12-02). "Could Obama Face 2012 Primary Challenge Over Afghanistan?". The Atlantic. http://www.theatlanticwire.com/opinions/view/opinion/Could-Obama-Face-2012-Primary-Challenge-Over-Afghanistan-1776. Retrieved 2009-12-17. 
  13. ^ "'Countdown with Keith Olbermann' for Wednesday, December 16th, 2009". MSNBC. 2009-12-16. Archived from the original on 2009-12-17. http://www.webcitation.org/5m5sn0Oej. Retrieved 2009-12-17. "Nothing short of your re-election and the re-election of dozens of Democrats in the House and the Senate hinges in large part on this bill. Make it palatable or make it go away or make yourself ready, not merely for a horrifying campaign in 2012, but for the distinct possibility also of a primary challenge." 
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  16. ^ Akers, Mary Ann (June 9, 2009). "Haley Barbour Enters the 2012 Thicket". The Washington Post. http://voices.washingtonpost.com/sleuth/2009/06/haley_barbour_enters_the_2012.html?. Retrieved June 11, 2009. 
  17. ^ Schaller, Tom (January 19, 2010) "On the Future and Branding of Scott Brown", FiveThirtyEight.com. Retrieved January 20, 2010.
  18. ^ Sammon, Bill (January 4, 2009). "Bush 41: Jeb Bush for President". Fox News Channel. http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/01/04/bush-jeb-bush-president/. Retrieved June 27, 2009. 
  19. ^ Newton-Small, Jay (February 23, 2009). "Eric Cantor: Giving the GOP Back Its Mojo". Time. http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1881286,00.html. Retrieved June 12, 2009. 
  20. ^ Riechmann, Deb (May 23, 2009). "Don't call ex-Vice President Cheney a has-been". Yahoo! News. http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090523/ap_on_go_pr_wh/us_cheney_no_exit. Retrieved June 12, 2009. 
  21. ^ Taranto, James (August 31, 2009). "Cheney for President". Wall Street Journal. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204731804574384723887160470.html?mod=rss_opinion_main. Retrieved September 1, 2009. 
  22. ^ Cillizza, Chris (November 25, 2009) "The Fix", The Washington Post. Retrieved November 25, 2009.
  23. ^ Luchtblau, Eric (January 19, 2010) "Interviews Begin for Ex-Aides to Ensign" Politics Daily. Retrieved January 21, 2010.
  24. ^ Romano, Andrew (November 26, 2009). "The Governor of Puerto Rico ... for President?". Newsweek. http://blog.newsweek.com/blogs/thegaggle/archive/2009/11/25/absurdly-premature-2012-watch-vol-2-the-governor-of-puerto-rico-for-president.aspx. Retrieved November 26, 2009. 
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  28. ^ Lewis, Bob (December 10, 2008). "La. Gov. Jindal: 2012 presidential bid unlikely". Fox News Channel. http://origin2.foxnews.com/wires/2008Dec10/0,4670,Jindal2012,00.html. Retrieved June 10, 2009. 
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