A bellwether is any entity in a given arena that serves to create or influence trends or to presage future happenings.
The term is derived from the Middle English bellewether and refers to the practice of placing a bell around the neck of a castrated ram (a wether) leading its flock of sheep.[1][2] The movements of the flock could be noted by hearing the bell before the flock was in sight.
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In politics, the term is more often applied in the passive sense to describe a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that the result of an election in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. In a Westminster-style election, for example, a constituency, the control of which tends frequently to change, can mirror in its popular vote the result on a national scale.
In Australian federal elections, the electoral divisions of Eden-Monaro in New South Wales and Leichhardt in Queensland have elected Members of Parliament from the party which won government at every federal election since 1972. The Division of Lindsay in NSW has elected its member of parliament from the party which won government in every Federal election since its creation in 1984. It is the only existing division in the country to have such a bellwether title. The electoral Division of Macarthur in New South Wales was a bellwether from the 1949 election until 2004. However, at the 2007 election Macarthur stayed as a Liberal seat despite a change of government, with sitting MP Pat Farmer narrowly surviving an 11% swing against him. The state of New South Wales could also be considered a bellwether, as the party which wins government has won the majority of House of Representatives seats in that state at every election since 1963. Unlike many bellwethers, these are cited by analysts solely for their record and are not usually attributed to demographic factors that reflect the median of Australia.
In the Canadian province of Ontario, Sarnia-Lambton (and its predecessor ridings) have voted for the winning party in every federal election beginning with 1963. Also in Ontario, Peterborough has been won by the party who has won the most seats overall in provincial elections since 1977.
In the United Kingdom, the Basildon constituency has reflected the overall result in every General Election since its creation in 1974. Gravesham and its predecessor Gravesend had a perfect record of voting for the winning party or the one with the largest share of the vote in every election from the First World War until 2005, when they voted Conservative. Bristol North West is also considered something of a bellwether, with its voters having elected the candidate of the winning party in every election since October 1974, though it failed to do so on a number of occasions prior to this.
Luton South and its predecessors the Luton East and Luton constituencies have elected an MP from the winning party in each election since the 1951 general election.
In the United States, Nevada has produced the same outcome as the national results in every presidential election beginning in 1912, except in 1976, thus voting for the winner 96.0% of the time. Ohio is the second closest with a match rate of 93.1%. Missouri, often referred to as the Missouri bellwether, was for many years the best match of the national results, but since 2008 is now third closest with a 92.6% match rate.
The American bellwether states currently are:
In addition, the Territory of Guam has had no misses from 1984 on (100.0%). Guam has no electoral college votes, but conducts a straw vote on local election day.
American bellwether counties include:
A list of the top 50 American bellwether counties between 1980 and 2004 is available here.
In the stock market, a bellwether (barometer stock in the UK) is the stock of a company that is regarded as a leader in its given industry. The performance of the stock is said to reflect the performance of the industry in general. These stocks are used as barometers for the rest of the market. JPMorgan Chase is an example of a bellwether stock. As one of the major banks in the US, it sets the tone for the rest of the industry. JPMorgan Chase also has contracts with companies in other industries so its performance is reflected in other sectors of the market.
In sociology, the term is applied in the active sense to a person or group of people who tend to create, influence or set trends.
Trends in expenditure in the UK advertising and marketing industry are monitored in the quarterly Bellwether Report, published by the Institute of Practitioners in Advertising (IPA).
  | Definition for Bellwether - bellwether - Definition from the Merriam-Webster Online Dictionary |
| | here - Beyond Red & Blue: Top 50 bellwethers for presidential election trends |
| | Bellwether definition from the glossary for "The Odyssey," - The Odyssey: Study and Homework Help: Full Glossary for The Odyssey - CliffsNotes |
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