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An argument is cogent if and only if the truth of the argument's premises would render the truth of the conclusion probable.^[1] Consider this example:

Without looking, Lauren pulled out 100 marbles from a bag; 95 of the marbles Lauren pulled out were red.

Therefore, the next marble Lauren pulls out from the bag will be red.

The truth of the premise would, indeed, make the conclusion probable. Therefore, this argument is cogent.

See also

• Inductive reasoning
• Logical argument

References

1. ^ http://www.fallacyfiles.org/glossary.html