John Craig  

Born 
1663 Hoddam, Dumfries, Scotland 
Died 
October 11, 1731 High Holborn, London, England 
Residence  England 
Nationality  Scottish 
Fields  Mathematician 
Alma mater  University of Edinburgh 
Doctoral advisor  David Gregory 
Known for  Loglikelihood ratio 
Influences  Isaac Newton 
John Craig (1663 – October 11, 1731) was a Scottish mathematician. Born in Dumfries and educated at the University of Edinburgh, he moved to England and became a vicar in the Church of England.
A friend of Newton, he wrote several minor works about the new calculus. He is mainly known for his book Theologiae Christianae Principia Mathematica (Mathematical Principles of Christian Theology), published in 1698.
In the aforementioned book, Craig presents a formula that describes how the probability of a historical event depends on the number of primary witnesses, on the chain of transmission through secondary witnesses, on the elapsed time and on the spatial distance. Using this formula, Craig derived that the probability of the story of Jesus would reach 0 in the year 3150. This year he interpreted as the Second Coming of Christ because of verse 18:8 in the Gospel of Luke.
His work was poorly received. Several later mathematicians complained about his imprecise use of probability and the unsupported derivation of his formula. Stephen Stigler, in his 1999 book (see references, below) gave a more favorable interpretation, pointing out that some of Craig's reasoning can be justified if his "probability" is interpreted as the loglikelihood ratio.
He was elected to Fellow of the Royal Society in 1711.
