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American inventor and futurist Raymond Kurzweil has become well known for predicting the future of artificial intelligence and the human race. His first book, The Age of Intelligent Machines, written in 1990, put forth his theories on the results of the increasing use of technology and notably foresaw the explosive growth in the internet, among other predictions. Later works, 1999's The Age of Spiritual Machines and 2005's The Singularity is Near outlined other theories including the rise of clouds of nano-robots called foglets and the development of Human Body 2.0 and 3.0, whereby nanotechnology is incorporated into many internal organs.

Contents

Accuracy of predictions

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The Age of Intelligent Machines

Arguably, Kurzweil gained a large amount of credibility as a futurist from his first book The Age of Intelligent Machines. Written from 1986 to 1989 and published in 1990, it forecast the demise of the Soviet Union due to new technologies such as cellular phones and fax machines disempowering authoritarian governments by removing state control over the flow of information. In the book Kurzweil also extrapolated preexisting trends in the improvement of computer chess software performance to predict correctly that computers would beat the best human players by 1998, and most likely in that year. In fact, the event occurred in May 1997 when chess World Champion Garry Kasparov was defeated by IBM's Deep Blue computer in a well-publicized chess tournament. Perhaps most significantly, Kurzweil foresaw the explosive growth in worldwide Internet use that began in the 1990s. At the time of the publication of The Age of Intelligent Machines, there were only 2.6 million Internet users in the world,[1] and the medium was unreliable, difficult to use, and deficient in content, making Kurzweil's realization of its future potential especially prescient given the technology's limitations at that time. He also stated that the Internet would explode not only in the number of users but in content as well, eventually granting users access "to international networks of libraries, data bases, and information services". Additionally, Kurzweil correctly foresaw that the preferred mode of Internet access would inevitably be through wireless systems, and he was also correct to estimate that the latter would become practical for widespread use in the early 21st century.

Kurzweil also accurately predicted that many documents would exist solely on computers and on the Internet by the end of the 1990s, and that they would commonly be embedded with animations, sounds and videos that would prohibit their transference to paper format. Moreover, he foresaw that cellular phones would grow in popularity while shrinking in size for the foreseeable future.

Kurzweil's views regarding the future of military technology were likewise supported by the course of real-world events following the publication of The Age of Intelligent Machines. His pronouncement that the world's foremost militaries would continually rely on more intelligent, computerized weapons instead of, say, increasingly large, low-tech armies, was illustrated spectacularly just a year later during the Gulf War, which served as a showcase for new weapons technologies. The trend towards greater computerization of weapons systems is further demonstrated by the increased use of precision munitions since the publication of Kurzweil's book. For example, 10% of all U.S. Naval ordnance expended during the Gulf War (1991) were guided weapons. During the Kosovo campaign (1999), that quantity climbed to 70%, and it reached 90% during the 2001-2002 Operation Enduring Freedom in Afghanistan.[2] As he also predicted, remotely controlled military aircraft were developed, beginning with the Predator reconnaissance plane in the mid-90s, and an armed version of the aircraft was first used in combat in November 2002.[3]

Kurzweil also described the future of computer-controlled, driverless cars, claiming that the technology to build them would become available during the first decade of the 21st century, yet that due to political opposition and the general public's mistrust of the technology, the computerized cars would not become widely used until several decades hence. In fact, considerable progress has been made with the technology since 1990, and General Motors is scheduled to unveil a new electronic car system called "Traffic Assist" in its 2008 Opel Vectra model. "Traffic Assist" uses video cameras, lasers and a central computer to gather and process information from the road and to make course and speed changes as needed, and is supposedly capable of driving itself without any input from the user in speeds below 60 mph, making it a true driverless car[4] "Traffic Assist" will not be exclusive to the 2008 Opel Vectra for long as GM has announced plans to offer the system for several other types of cars before the end of the decade.[5] Due to stricter U.S. product liability laws, the system will not be available in America for the foreseeable future and will only be offered in Europe.[5]

Kurzweil predicted that pocket-sized machines capable of scanning text from almost any source (a piece of paper, a road sign, a computer screen) and then reading the text out loud in a computerized voice would be available "In the early twenty-first century" and would be used to assist blind people. In June 2005, Ray Kurzweil himself unveiled the "Kurzweil-National Federation of the Blind Reader" (K-NFB Reader), which is a reading machine possessing the aforementioned attributes.[6] However, he also claimed back in 1990 that the readers would be able to recognize and describe symbols, pictures and graphics in addition to words, read multiple languages, possess wireless Internet access, and be in use with "most" blind and dyslexic people, and perhaps among some normal people as well. While the K-NFB Reader does not have these final attributes, it is possible that the device may be upgraded to the necessary level before the nebulously defined "early twenty-first century" expires. Kurzweil stated during a speech to the 2006 Singularity Summit that his company's current efforts are focused on increasing the pattern recognition abilities of the K-NFB Reader so that the device could identify animals, objects and people, also utilizing facial recognition programs for the final task.[7] Presumably, a machine complex enough to handle such tasks would also be able to read much simpler written symbols and traffic signs.

The Age of Spiritual Machines

In 1999, Kurzweil published a second book titled The Age of Spiritual Machines, which goes into more depth explaining his futurist ideas. The third and final section of the book is devoted to elucidating the specific course of technological advancements Kurzweil believes the world will experience over the next century. Titled "To Face the Future", the section is divided into four chapters respectively named "2009", "2019", "2029", and "2099". For every chapter, Kurzweil issues predictions about what life and technology will be like in that year.

While the veracity of Kurzweil's predictions for 2019 and beyond cannot yet be determined, 2009 is present to allow many of the ideas of the "2009" chapter to be scrutinized. To begin, Kurzweil's claims that 2009 would be a year of continued transition as purely electronic computer memories continued to replace older rotating memories seems to be disproved by continued rapid growth in hard-disk capacity and unit sales[8], while high-capacity Flash drives have yet to catch on in high-volume applications. Nonetheless, solid state storage is the preferred method of storage in low-volume applications such as MP3 players, handheld gaming systems, cellular phones and digital cameras. Samsung announced on Nov 20th 2008 that they would begin mass production of a 256 GB Solid state drive[9] for use in laptops and desktops, but these drives will cost over $1,000, making storage on these drives cost roughly ten times the price of comparable hard-disk storage. On the other hand, Kurzweil correctly foresaw the growing ubiquity of wireless Internet access and cordless computer peripherals. Perhaps of even greater importance, Kurzweil presaged the explosive growth in peer-to-peer filesharing and the emergence of the Internet as a major medium for commerce and for accessing media such as movies, television programs, newspaper and magazine text, and music. He also claimed that three-dimensional computer chips would be in common use by 2009 (though older, "2-D" chips would still predominate), but although IBM has recently developed the necessary chip-stacking technology and announced plans to begin using three-dimensional chips in its supercomputers and for wireless communication applications, chip stacking will remain a low-volume technology in 2009.[10]

In The Age of Spiritual Machines, Kurzweil also spent time discussing future increases in computing use in education. He predicted that interactive software and electronic learning materials would be used by 2009. Indeed, smartboards, interactive whiteboards with a connection to the Internet and learning software and activities are commonly used in schools in developed nations.[11]

The XO Laptop in ebook-mode. Also known as the "$100 laptop".

Kurzweil went further to say that students would commonly have portable learning computers in the form of a "thin tablet-like device weighing under a pound." While students increasingly use portable laptops in schools, they tend to be of traditional configuration and of greater weight. But supporting Kurzweil's prediction is the emergence of the One Laptop Per Child Project, which aims to provide low-cost laptop computers (often called the "$100 Laptop") to students in developing nations across the world. The computer can be quickly reconfigured from traditional laptop layout to a tablet-like "e-book reading" layout.[12] However, the $100 Laptop also weighs over three pounds.[13] The first batch of 5 million laptops[14] is expected to ship sometime in 2007.[15] The government of Uruguay was the first to make a major order, buying 100,000 of the laptops in October, 2007 and announcing plans for the possible purchase of 300,000 more units by 2009.[16]

While text-to-speech converters, which Kurzweil imagined in widespread use by 2009, remain uncommon as of early January 2008, such technologies are rapidly becoming more and more widely used; for example, the strategy game EndWar, released in 2008, features an extremely robust voice command interface.[17] Computerized distance learning, also, is already fairly common at sites such as open.yale.edu, UC Berkeley Online Learning or youtube.com/ucberkeley, and Second Life.

Kurzweil also restates his earlier prediction from The Age of Intelligent Machines regarding the advent of pocket-sized, text-to-speech converters for the blind. The "Kurzweil-National Federation of the Blind Reader" (K-NFB Reader) was introduced in 2005, though a significant reduction in price would be required by 2009 to reasonably classify the device as "cheap"—one quality Kurzweil claimed they would possess.

Kurzweil predicted that warfare in 2009 would be dominated by unmanned combat planes. While combat in 2007 is still dominated by soldiers, ships, and aircraft, unmanned aircraft have nevertheless advanced considerably since 1999 and are more widely used. These include the MQ-1 Predator and MQ-9 Reaper planes currently on active duty in the U.S. military.

Kurzweil predicted privacy emerging as a political issue (see CCTV: Privacy).

Kurzweil also predicted that unused processing power from idle computers would be harvested via the Internet, pooling the computational resources of many ordinary PCs to create "virtual parallel supercomputers." When Kurzweil wrote The Age of Spiritual Machines in 1998, distributed computing was unknown to the general public, and the two biggest projects—the Great Internet Mersenne Prime Search and Distributed.net—had about 8,000[18] and 100,000[19] computers contributing idle-time processing power, respectively. The popularity of distributed computing exploded in May 1999 with the release of the SETI@home program, which attracted 200,000 users within a week of initial Internet release, and by July 2002, 3.83 million people had downloaded and run the client. Today, the vast majority of distributed computing projects fall under the auspices of either United Devices or BOINC.[20] As of November 2007, BOINC has more than 1.1 million active users and almost 2.4 million hosts.[21] Sony also offers users of the Internet-capable PS3 game console the option to donate their machines' idle processing power to Folding@home–an online distributed computing project that seeks to understand the process of protein folding. More than 600,000 PS3 users have agreed to lend their game consoles to the task, resulting in a record-breaking petaflop (1015calculations per second) of processing power in November 2007.[22] This makes the Folding@home project only slightly less powerful (in terms of raw calculating power) than the human brain, which Kurzweil estimates to be capable of 20 × 1015 calculations per second. Kurzweil predicted that in 2009, these networks will have more raw power than a human brain.

Kurzweil's prediction that portable computers will shrink in size and take on nontraditional physical forms (i.e. - very different in design from a laptop or desktop computer) by 2009 is supported by the emergence of devices such as the portable media players and advanced cell phones, as well as by newer PDAs. All meet Kurzweil's aforementioned criteria, being small to the point of wearability, possessing the power and range of function of older computers, and featuring designs that radically depart from normal computers. Kurzweil's forecast that these devices would store information without the use of rotating disk style hard drives was also right.

However, his claim that such portable computers will be commonly embedded in clothing and jewelry by 2009 seems unlikely to pass, as does his prediction that people will typically be wearing "at least a dozen" such computers in the same year. Most "portable computers" as they are defined here also have built-in keyboards or accessible keyboard functions (such as a digital keyboard that can be manipulated through a touchscreen), putting reality again at odds with Kurzweil's belief that most computers would lack this feature by 2009, with users instead relying on continuous speech recognition (CSR) to communicate with their PCs.

Similarly, Kurzweil's claim that, by 2009, "the majority of text" will be created through continuous speech recognition (CSR) programs instead of through keyboards and manual typing seems highly unlikely. In that vein, he also implied in The Age of Spiritual Machines that CSR software should in fact have already replaced human transcriptionists years before 2009 (i.e. - 2007 or earlier) due in part to its projected superiority in understanding speech compared to human listeners. CSR is not yet this advanced, and the total replacement of human transcriptionists did not happen.

His prediction that there are 100 computers in the average household is debatable, as it depends upon one's definition of a computer. If one considers microchips and the like computers, then it is quite likely, between all the clocks, microwaves, washing machines, televisions, and other devices in the household. Any other way doesn't seem to work, however. This links into his prediction of domestic robots being around but not mainstream.

Since the publication of The Age of Spiritual Machines, Kurzweil has even tacitly admitted that some of his 2009 predictions will not happen on schedule. For instance, in the book he forecast that specialized eyeglasses that beamed computer-generated images onto the retinas of their users to produce a HUD-effect would be in wide use by 2009. However, the computerized voice translating services he predicted, allowing people speaking different languages to understand one another through a phone, are available.[citation needed]

The Age of Spiritual Machines also features a "Timeline" section at the end, which summarizes both the history of technological advancement and Kurzweil's predictions for the future.[23]

The Singularity is Near

While this book focuses on the future of technology and the human race as The Age of Intelligent Machines and The Age of Spiritual Machines did, Kurzweil makes very few concrete, short-term predictions in The Singularity is Near, though longer-term visions are present in abundance.

Kurzweil predicts that, in 2005, supercomputers with the computational capacities to simulate protein folding will be introduced. However, he does not say that an adequate scientific understanding of the forces behind protein folding will come into being in the same year, meaning that the supercomputers might lack the software to mimic accurately the biochemical process. In fact, protein folding is still (as of 2010) a poorly understood phenomenon, and even supercomputer simulations remain inaccurate outside of simulating the folding of basic proteins.

Other Sources

In an October 2002 article published on his website, Kurzweil stated that "Deep Fritz-like chess programs running on ordinary personal computers will routinely defeat all humans later in this decade."[24]

Deep Fritz is a computer chess program--generally considered superior to the older Deep Blue--that has defeated or tied a number of human chess masters and opposing chess programs.[25] Due to advances in personal computer performance, the Deep Fritz program can now run on ordinary personal computers, and different versions of it are available for purchase.[26][27] While this makes the first part of Kurzweil's prediction true, it is unknown whether the Deep Fritz programs are currently defeating all humans in all games played, though considering the impressive professional record of Deep Fritz, it would be reasonable to assume that only the very best human players can beat the program with consistency.

In September 2002, Chessmaster 9000, a widely available chess playing game from Ubisoft, defeated the then U.S. Chess Champion and International Grandmaster Larry Christiansen in a four-game match.[28]

Future Predictions

The Age of Intelligent Machines (1990)

Early 2000s

  • Translating telephones allow people to speak to each other in different languages.
  • Machines designed to transcribe speech into computer text allow deaf people to understand spoken words.
  • Exoskeletal, robotic leg prostheses allow the paraplegic to walk.
  • Telephone calls are routinely screened by intelligent answering machines that ask questions to determine the call's nature and priority.
  • "Cybernetic chauffeurs" can drive cars for humans and can be retrofitted into existing cars. They work by communicating with other vehicles and with sensors embedded along the roads.

Early 21st century

  • The classroom is dominated by computers. Intelligent courseware that can tailor itself to each student by recognizing their strengths and weaknesses. Media technology allows students to manipulate and interact with virtual depictions of the systems and personalities they are studying.
  • A small number of highly skilled people dominates the entire production sector. Tailoring of products for individuals is common.
  • Drugs are designed and tested in simulations that mimic the human body.
  • Blind people navigate and read text using machines that can visually recognize features of their environment.

Note: Since the "Early 2000s" and "Early 21st century" predictions are both listed before the "2010" predictions in the technology Chronology, it can be assumed that the timeframe for the first two is 2000-2010.

2010

  • PCs are capable of answering queries by accessing information wirelessly via the Internet.

2020-2050

  • Phone calls entail three-dimensional holographic images of both people.
  • By 2020, there will be a new World government.

2020-2070

  • A computer passes the Turing Test, becoming the first true Artificial Intelligence.

Kurzweil has even wagered that his predictions will be true, on the site Long Bets Betting against Mitchell Kapor, founder of Lotus Software Corporation for a payout of $20,000, or $10,000 each.

Centuries hence

  • Computer intelligence becomes superior to human intelligence in all areas.

The Age of Spiritual Machines (1999)

2019

  • A $1,000 personal computer has as much raw power as the human brain.
  • The summed computational powers of all computers is comparable to the total brainpower of the human race.
  • Computers are embedded everywhere in the environment (inside of furniture, jewelry, walls, clothing, etc.).
  • People experience 3-D virtual reality through glasses and contact lenses that beam images directly to their retinas (retinal display). Coupled with an auditory source (headphones), users can remotely communicate with other people and access the Internet.
  • These special glasses and contact lenses can deliver "augmented reality" and "virtual reality" in three different ways. First, they can project "heads-up-displays" (HUDs) across the user's field of vision, superimposing images that stay in place in the environment regardless of the user's perspective or orientation. Second, virtual objects or people could be rendered in fixed locations by the glasses, so when the user's eyes look elsewhere, the objects appear to stay in their places. Third, the devices could block out the "real" world entirely and fully immerse the user in a virtual reality environment.
  • People communicate with their computers via two-way speech and gestures instead of with keyboards. Furthermore, most of this interaction occurs through computerized assistants with different personalities that the user can select or customize. Dealing with computers thus becomes more and more like dealing with a human being.
  • Most business transactions or information inquiries involve dealing with a simulated person.
  • Most people own more than one P.C., though the concept of what a "computer" is has changed considerably: Computers are no longer limited in design to laptops or CPUs contained in a large box connected to a monitor. Instead, devices with computer capabilities come in all sorts of unexpected shapes and sizes.
  • Cables connecting computers and peripherals have almost completely disappeared.
  • Rotating computer memories are no longer used.
  • Three-dimensional nanotube lattices are the dominant computing substrate.
  • Massively parallel neural nets and genetic algorithms are in wide use.
  • Destructive scans of the brain and noninvasive brain scans have allowed scientists to understand the brain much better. The algorithms that allow the relatively small genetic code of the brain to construct a much more complex organ are being transferred into computer neural nets.
  • Pinhead-sized cameras are everywhere.
  • Nanotechnology is more capable and is in use for specialized applications, yet it has not yet made it into the mainstream. "Nanoengineered machines" begin to be used in manufacturing.
  • Thin, lightweight, handheld displays with very high resolutions are the preferred means for viewing documents. The aforementioned computer eyeglasses and contact lenses are also used for this same purpose, and all download the information wirelessly.
  • Computers have made paper books and documents almost completely obsolete.
  • Most learning is accomplished through intelligent, adaptive courseware presented by computer-simulated teachers. In the learning process, human adults fill the counselor and mentor roles instead of being academic instructors. These assistants are often not physically present, and help students remotely.
  • Students still learn together and socialize, though this is often done remotely via computers.
  • All students have access to computers.
  • Most human workers spend the majority of their time acquiring new skills and knowledge.
  • Blind people wear special glasses that interpret the real world for them through speech. Sighted people also use these glasses to amplify their own abilities.
  • Retinal and neural implants also exist, but are in limited use because they are less useful.
  • Deaf people use special glasses that convert speech into text or signs, and music into images or tactile sensations. Cochlear and other implants are also widely used.
  • People with spinal cord injuries can walk and climb steps using computer-controlled nerve stimulation and exoskeletal robotic walkers.
  • Language translating machines are of much higher quality, and are routinely used in conversations.
  • Access to the Internet is completely wireless and provided by wearable or implanted computers.
  • Devices that deliver sensations to the skin surface of their users (i.e.--tight body suits and gloves) are also sometimes used in virtual reality to complete the experience. "Virtual sex"--in which two people are able to have sex with each other through virtual reality, or in which a human can have sex with a "simulated" partner that only exists on a computer--becomes a reality.
  • Just as visual- and auditory virtual reality have come of age, haptic technology has fully matured and is completely convincing, yet requires the user to enter a V.R. booth. It is commonly used for computer sex and remote medical examinations. It is the preferred sexual medium since it is safe and enhances the experience.
  • Worldwide economic growth has continued. There has not been a global economic collapse.
  • The vast majority of business interactions occur between humans and simulated retailers, or between a human's virtual personal assistant and a simulated retailer.
  • Household robots are ubiquitous and reliable.
  • Computers do most of the vehicle driving—-humans are in fact prohibited from driving on highways unassisted. Furthermore, when humans do take over the wheel, the onboard computer system constantly monitors their actions and takes control whenever the human drives recklessly. As a result, there are very few transportation accidents.
  • Prototype personal flying vehicles using microflaps exist. They are also primarily computer-controlled.
  • Humans are beginning to have deep relationships with automated personalities, which hold some advantages over human partners. The depth of some computer personalities convinces some people that they should be accorded more rights.
  • Public places and workplaces are ubiquitously monitored to prevent violence and all actions are recorded permanently. Personal privacy is a major political issue, and some people protect themselves with unbreakable computer codes.
  • The basic needs of the underclass are met. (Not specified if this pertains only to the developed world or to all countries)
  • Computers are also found inside of some humans in the form of cybernetic implants. These are most commonly used by disabled people to regain normal physical faculties (i.e. - Retinal implants allow the blind to see and spinal implants coupled with mechanical legs allow the paralyzed to walk).
  • Most roads now have automated driving systems--networks of monitoring and communication devices that allow computer-controlled automobiles to safely navigate.
  • Human-robot relationships begin as simulated personalities become more convincing.
  • Virtual artists--creative computers capable of making their own art and music--emerge in all fields of the arts.
  • While a growing number of humans believe that their computers and the simulated personalities they interact with are intelligent to the point of human-level consciousness, experts dismiss the possibility that any could pass the Turing Test.
  • Ubiquitous connectivity high bandwidth communications connection to the Internet at all times
  • Interaction with virtual personalities as a primary interface
  • Effective language technologies (natural language processing, speech recognition, speech synthesis)

2029

  • A $1,000 personal computer is 1,000 times more powerful than the human brain.
  • The vast majority of computation is done by computers.
  • Further progress has been made in understanding the secrets of the human brain. Hundreds of distinct sub-regions with specialized functions have been identified. Some of the algorithms that code for development of these regions have been deciphered and incorporated into neural net computers.
  • Massively parallel neural nets, which are constructed through reverse-engineering the human brain, are in common use.
  • The eyeglasses and headphones that used to deliver virtual reality are now obsolete thanks to computer implants that go into the eyes and ears. The implants are either permanent or removable. They allow direct interface with computers, communications and Internet-based applications. The implants are also capable of recording what the user sees and hears.
  • Computer implants designed for direct connection to the brain are also available. They are capable of augmenting natural senses and of enhancing higher brain functions like memory, learning speed and overall intelligence.
  • Computers are now capable of learning and creating new knowledge entirely on their own and with no human help. By scanning the enormous content of the Internet, some computers "know" literally every single piece of public information (every scientific discovery, every book and movie, every public statement, etc.) generated by human beings.
  • Direct brain implants allow users to enter full-immersion virtual reality--with complete sensory stimulation--without any external equipment. People can have their minds in a totally different place at any moment. This technology is in widespread use.
  • Most communication occurs between humans and machines as opposed to human-to-human.
  • The manufacturing, agricultural and transportation sectors of the economy are almost entirely automated and employ very few humans. Across the world, poverty, war and disease are almost nonexistent thanks to technology alleviating want.
  • The rise of Artificial Intelligence creates a real "robot rights" movement, and there is open, public debate over what sorts of civil rights and legal protections machines should have. The existence of humans with heavy levels of cybernetic augmentation and of larger numbers of other people with less extreme cybernetic implants lead to further arguments over what constitutes a "human being."
  • Although computers routinely pass the Turing Test, controversy still persists over whether machines are as intelligent as humans in all areas.
  • Artificial Intelligences claim to be conscious and openly petition for recognition of the fact. Most people admit and accept this new truth.
  • Reverse engineering of the human brain completed
  • Non-biological intelligence combines the subtlety and pattern recognition strength of human intelligence, with the speed, memory, and knowledge sharing of machine intelligence
  • Non-biological intelligence will continue to grow exponentially whereas biological intelligence is effectively fixed

2049

  • Food is commonly "assembled" by nanomachines. This food is externally indistinguishable from "natural" food, but it can be made more wholesome since production can be controlled at the molecular level. This technology decouples food production from climate conditions and the availability of natural resources.
  • The distinction between virtual reality and "real" reality becomes confounded as foglets come into common use, allowing immediate assembly or disassembly of all sorts of physical objects.

2072

  • Picoengineering (technology on the scale of trillionths of a meter) becomes practical.

2099

  • The human brain has been completely reverse engineered and all aspects of its functioning are understood.
  • Natural human thinking possesses no advantages over computer minds.
  • Machines have attained equal legal status with humans.
  • Humans and machines merge together in the physical and mental realms. Cybernetic brain implants enable humans to fuse their minds with AI's.
  • In consequence, clear distinctions between humans and machines no longer exist.
  • Most conscious beings lack a permanent physical form.
  • The world is overwhelmingly populated by AI's that exist entirely as thinking computer programs capable of instantly moving from one computer to another across the Internet (or whatever equivalent exists in 2099). These computer-based beings are capable of manifesting themselves at will in the physical world by creating or taking over robotic bodies, with individual AI's also being capable of controlling multiple bodies at once.
  • Individual beings merge and separate constantly, making it impossible to determine how many “people” there are on Earth.
  • This new plasticity of consciousness and ability for beings to join minds seriously alters the nature of self-identity.
  • The majority of interpersonal interactions occur in virtual environments. Actually having two people physically meet in the real world to have a conversation or transact business without any technological interference is very rare.
  • Organic human beings are a small minority of the intelligent life forms on Earth. Even among the remaining Homo sapiens, the use of computerized implants that heavily augment normal abilities is ubiquitous and accepted as normal. The small fraction of humans who opt to remain "natural" and unmodified effectively exist on a different plane of consciousness from everyone else, and thus find it impossible to fully interact with AI's and highly modified humans.
  • "Natural" humans are protected from extermination. In spite of their shortcomings and frailties, humans are respected by AI's for giving rise to the machines.
  • Since knowledge and skills can be instantly downloaded and comprehended by most intelligent beings, the process of learning is compressed into an instantaneous affair instead of the years-long struggle normal humans experience. Free from this time-consuming burden, AI's now focus their energies on making new discoveries and contributions.
  • AI's are capable of dividing their attention and energies in countless directions, allowing one being to manage a multitude of endeavors simultaneously.
  • Femtoengineering (engineering on the scale of one thousandth of a trillionth of a meter) might be possible.
  • AI's communicate via a shared electronic language.
  • Artwork and music created by machines encompasses areas of the light spectrum and frequencies of sounds that normal humans cannot perceive.
  • Money has deflated in value.
  • Some humans at least as old as the Baby Boomers are still alive and well.
  • Computer viruses are a major threat since most intelligent beings are software-based.
  • AI's frequently make "backup copies" of themselves, guaranteeing a sort of immortality should the original AI be killed.
  • The concept of "life expectancy" has become irrelevant to humans and machines thanks to medical immortality and advanced computers.
  • The pace of technological change continues to accelerate as the 22nd century nears.

Thousands of years from now

  • "Intelligent beings consider the fate of the Universe." Presumably, this means that the AI's created by humans will have the ability to control the entire Universe, perhaps keeping it from dying.

The Singularity is Near (2005)

2010

  • Supercomputers will have the same raw computing power as human brains (though not yet the software to emulate human thinking).
  • Computers will start to disappear as distinct physical objects, meaning many will have nontraditional shapes or will be embedded in clothing and everyday objects.
  • Full-immersion audio-visual virtual reality will exist.

2010s

  • Computers become smaller and increasingly integrated into everyday life.
  • More and more computer devices will be used as miniature web servers, and more will have their resources pooled for computation.
  • High-quality broadband Internet access will become available almost everywhere.
  • Glasses that beam images onto the users' retinas to produce virtual reality will be developed. They will also come with speakers or headphone attachments that will complete the experience with sounds.
  • The VR glasses will also have built-in computers featuring "virtual assistant" programs that can help the user with various daily tasks. (see Augmented Reality)
  • Virtual assistants would be capable of multiple functions. One useful function would be real-time language translation in which words spoken in a foreign language would be translated into text that would appear as subtitles to a user wearing the glasses.
  • Cell phones will be built into clothing and will be able to project sounds directly into the ears of their users.
  • Advertisements will utilize a new technology whereby two ultrasonic beams can be targeted to intersect at a specific point, delivering a localized sound message that only a single person can hear. This was depicted in the movie Minority Report.

2014

  • Automatic house cleaning robots will have become common.

2018

  • 1013 bits of computer memory--roughly the equivalent of the memory space in a single human brain--will cost $1000.

2020

  • Personal computers will have the same processing power as human brains.

2020s

  • Computers less than 100 nm in size will be possible.
  • As one of their first practical applications, nanomachines are used for medical purposes.
  • Highly advanced medical nanobots will perform detailed brainscans on live patients.
  • Accurate computer simulations of the entire human brain will exist due to these hyperaccurate brainscans, and the workings of the brain will be understood.
  • Nanobots capable of entering the bloodstream to "feed" cells and extract waste will exist (though not necessarily be in wide use) by the end of this decade. They will make the normal mode of human food consumption obsolete.
  • By the late 2020s, nanotech-based manufacturing will be in widespread use, radically altering the economy as all sorts of products can suddenly be produced for a fraction of their traditional-manufacture costs. The true cost of any product is now the amount it takes to download the design schematics.
  • By the later part of this decade, virtual reality will be so high-quality that it will be indistinguishable from real reality.
  • The threat posed by genetically engineered pathogens permanently dissipates by the end of this decade as medical nanobots--infinitely more durable, intelligent and capable than any microorganism--become sufficiently advanced.
  • A computer passes the Turing test by the last year of the decade (2029), meaning that it is a Strong AI and can think like a human (though the first A.I. is likely to be the equivalent of a very stupid human). This first A.I. is built around a computer simulation of a human brain, which was made possible by previous, nanotech-guided brainscanning.

2025

  • The most likely year for the debut of advanced nanotechnology.
  • Some military UAV's and land vehicles will be 100% computer-controlled.

2030s

  • Mind uploading becomes possible.
  • Nanomachines could be directly inserted into the brain and could interact with brain cells to totally control incoming and outgoing signals. As a result, truly full-immersion virtual reality could be generated without the need for any external equipment. Afferent nerve pathways could be blocked, totally canceling out the "real" world and leaving the user with only the desired virtual experience.
  • Brain nanobots could also elicit emotional responses from users.
  • Using brain nanobots, recorded or real-time brain transmissions of a person's daily life known as "experience beamers" will be available for other people to remotely experience. This is very similar to how the characters in Being John Malkovich were able to enter the mind of Malkovich and see the world through his eyes.
  • Recreational uses aside, nanomachines in peoples' brains will allow them to greatly expand their cognitive, memory and sensory capabilities, to directly interface with computers, and to "telepathically" communicate with other, similarly augmented humans via wireless networks.
  • The same nanotechnology should also allow people to alter the neural connections within their brains, changing the underlying basis for the person's intelligence, memories and personality.
  • Human body 2.0 (as Kurzweil calls it) is incrementally accumulated into this decade. It consists of a nanotechnological system of nourishment and circulation, obsolescing many internal organs, and an improved skeleton.

2040s

  • Human body 3.0 is gradually implemented during this decade. It lacks a fixed, corporeal form and can alter its shape and external appearance at will via foglet-like nanotechnology.
  • People spend most of their time in full-immersion virtual reality (Kurzweil has cited The Matrix as a good example of what the advanced virtual worlds will be like, without the dystopian twist).
  • Foglets are in use.

2045: The Singularity

  • $1000 buys a computer a billion times more intelligent than every human combined. This means that average and even low-end computers are vastly smarter than even highly intelligent, unenhanced humans.
  • The technological singularity occurs as artificial intelligences surpass human beings as the smartest and most capable life forms on the Earth. Technological development is taken over by the machines, who can think, act and communicate so quickly that normal humans cannot even comprehend what is going on. The machines enter into a "runaway reaction" of self-improvement cycles, with each new generation of A.I.s appearing faster and faster. From this point onwards, technological advancement is explosive, under the control of the machines, and thus cannot be accurately predicted.
  • The Singularity is an extremely disruptive, world-altering event that forever changes the course of human history. The extermination of humanity by violent machines is unlikely (though not impossible) because sharp distinctions between man and machine will no longer exist thanks to the existence of cybernetically enhanced humans and uploaded humans.

Post-2045: "Waking up" the Universe

  • The physical bottom limit to how small computer transistors (or other equivalent, albeit more effective components, such as memristors integrated into Crossbar latches) can be shrunk is reached. From this moment onwards, computers can only be made more powerful if they are made larger in size.
  • Because of this, A.I.s convert more and more of the Earth's matter into engineered, computational substrate capable of supporting more A.I.s. until the whole Earth is one, gigantic computer.
  • At this point, the only possible way to increase the intelligence of the machines any farther is to begin converting all of the matter in the universe into similar massive computers. A.I.s radiate out into space in all directions from the Earth, breaking down whole planets, moons and meteoroids and reassembling them into giant computers. This, in effect, "wakes up" the universe as all the inanimate "dumb" matter (rocks, dust, gases, etc.) is converted into structured matter capable of supporting life (albeit synthetic life).
  • Kurzweil predicts that machines might have the ability to make planet-sized computers by 2099, which underscores how enormously technology will advance after the Singularity.
  • The process of "waking up" the universe could be complete as early as 2199, or might take billions of years depending on whether or not machines could figure out a way to circumvent the speed of light for the purposes of space travel.
  • With the entire universe made into a giant, highly efficient supercomputer, AI and human hybrids (so integrated that, in truth it is a new category of "life") would have both supreme intelligence and physical control over the universe. Kurzweil suggests that this would open up all sorts of new possibilities, including abrogation of the laws of Physics, interdimensional travel, and a possible infinite extension of existence (true immortality).

Some indeterminate points within a few decades from now

  • Space technology becomes advanced enough to provide the Earth permanent protection from the threat of asteroid impacts.
  • The antitechnology Luddite movement will grow increasingly vocal and possibly resort to violence as these people become enraged over the emergence of new technologies that threaten traditional attitudes regarding the nature of human life (radical life extension, genetic engineering, cybernetics) and the supremacy of mankind (artificial intelligence). Though the Luddites might, at best, succeed in delaying the Singularity, the march of technology is irresistible and they will inevitably fail in keeping the world frozen at a fixed level of development.
  • The emergence of distributed energy grids and full-immersion virtual reality will, when combined with high bandwidth Internet, enable the ultimate in telecommuting. This, in turn, will make cities obsolete since workers will no longer need to be located near their workplaces. The decentralization of the population will make societies less vulnerable to terrorist and military attacks.

Other Sources

Kurzweil said the following in a November 2007 Computerworld interview:

  • Speech-to-speech translation features will be available in cell phones in either 2009 or 2010.[29]
  • By 2017, computers will have become even more ubiquitous in the environment, largely owing to smaller size. Some will be woven into clothing and will be "self-organizing."[30]
  • By the same year, practical virtual reality glasses will be in use. The devices will work by beaming images directly onto the retinas of their users, creating large, three-dimensional floating images in the person's field of view. Such devices would provide a visual experience on par with a very large television, but would be highly portable, combining the best features of the iPod and a widescreen TV. The glasses will deliver full-immersion virtual reality.[30]
  • By 2017, "augmented reality" will exist: The V.R. glasses previously mentioned will have advanced computers and sensors built into them that will be able to recognize elements within the user's environment and then provide appropriate information and assistance through visual or auditory means. If the user looks at a building or a person's face, the computer will provide information through a "heads-up-display" beamed onto the person's retinas. The devices could also be used for keeping track of schedules, navigating, and querying for general information.[30]
  • By 2022, medical technology will be more than a thousand times more advanced than it is today, and the "tipping point" of human life expectancy will have been reached, with every new year of research guaranteeing at least one more year of life expectancy. Kurzweil also states that 3-4 months of life expectancy were added in 2007 due to the development of new medicines and treatments.[29]
  • Cell phones and PCs will be increasingly woven into a global grid of computers wirelessly connected to the Internet. Instead of each device just sending and receiving its own data, more and more of the machines will be tasked with processing foreign data, creating a huge, interconnected network with millions of nodes.
  • By 2027, accurate computer simulations of all parts of the human brain will exist.[29]

Kurzweil said in a 2006 C-SPAN2 interview that "nanotechnology-based" flying cars would be available in 20 years[31].

Kurzweil said in a 2008 conference that solar energy would become cheaper than energy from oil by 2014.

References

  1. ^ Fleeing the dot.com era - decline in Internet usage | UNESCO Courier |Find Articles at BNET.com
  2. ^ NDM Article - Precision Weapons Command More Attention, Resources
  3. ^ Air Force Technology - Predator - Unmanned Aerial Vehicle UAV
  4. ^ New OPEL Vectra 2008
  5. ^ a b A Car That (Really) Drives Itself: The 2008 Opel Vectra
  6. ^ http://www.knfbreader.com/index.html
  7. ^ YouTube - Ray Kurzweil (pt1of3) The Singularity Summit at Stanford
  8. ^ [1]
  9. ^ http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/enterprise/65233.html
  10. ^ IBM Extends Moore's Law to the Third Dimension
  11. ^ SMART Board interactive whiteboards
  12. ^ One Laptop per Child (OLPC) Features
  13. ^ One Laptop per Child (OLPC) Specs
  14. ^ "$100 Laptop Project Moves Closer to Narrowing Digital Divide". http://content.undp.org/go/newsroom/2006/january/100-dollar-laptop-20060128.en. Retrieved 2007-12-22. 
  15. ^ Low-cost laptop could transform learning
  16. ^ "Uruguay buys first '$100 laptops'", BBC News, October 29, 2007.
  17. ^ GameSpy: Tom Clancy's EndWar Preview
  18. ^ http://www.mersenne.org/news15.txt
  19. ^ Record set in cracking 56-bit crypto
  20. ^ iSGTW Announcement - World Community Grid migrates to BOINC
  21. ^ BOINCstats - BOINC Statistics
  22. ^ Sony's Folding@home project gets Guinness record
  23. ^ KurzweilAI.net
  24. ^ Deep Fritz Draws: Are Humans Getting Smarter, or Are Computers Getting Stupider?
  25. ^ The chess games of Deep Fritz (Computer)
  26. ^ Chess software - Deep Fritz 10 - Multiprocessor Version
  27. ^ Deep Fritz 8
  28. ^ Chessmaster 9000 Defeats Reigning US Chess Champion Larry Christiansen; Chessmaster Wins Four Game Match 2.5 to 1.5 Via Live Internet Broadcast on ChessClub.com
  29. ^ a b c The Kurzweil interview, continued: Portable computing, virtual reality, immortality, and strong vs. narrow AI |Computerworld Blogs
  30. ^ a b c "The Grill: Ray Kurzweil talks about 'augmented reality' and the Singularity". http://computerworld.com/action/article.do?command=viewArticleBasic&taxonomyName=hardware&articleId=306176&taxonomyId=12&intsrc=kc_feat. Retrieved 2007-12-22. 
  31. ^ "Book TV - In Depth: Ray Kurzweil". http://www.booktv.org/program.aspx?ProgramId=7515&SectionName=In%20Depth&PlayMedia=yes;. Retrieved 2008-06-24. 

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