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| Election campaign, next < 2002 2006 next |
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| Government | Opposition | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Australian Labor Party | Liberal Party of Australia | |||
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| Mike Rann | Isobel Redmond | |||
| Leader since | 1994 | 2009 | ||
| Leader rating[1] | 44% | 41% | ||
| 2PP rating[2] | 50% | 50% | ||
| 2006 2PP result | 56.8% | 43.2% | ||
| Seats | 28 | 14 | ||
| Seats needed | 0 | 10 | ||
| Swing needed | 0.0% | 15.3% | ||
The 2010 South Australian state election will elect members to the 52nd Parliament of South Australia on 20 March 2010. All seats in the House of Assembly or lower house, whose current members were elected at the 2006 election, and half the seats in the Legislative Council or upper house, last filled at the 2002 election, will become vacant. Like federal elections, South Australia has compulsory voting, uses full-preference instant-runoff voting in the lower house and single transferable vote group voting tickets in the upper house. The election will be conducted by the State Electoral Office of South Australia, an independent body answerable to Parliament.
Contents |
The last state election was held on 18 March 2006 to elect members for the House of Assembly and half of the members in the Legislative Council. In South Australia, section 28 of the Constitution Act 1934, as amended in 2001, directs that parliaments have fixed four-year terms, and elections must be held on the third Saturday in March every four years unless this date falls the day after Good Friday or occurs within the same month as a Commonwealth election, or the conduct of the election could be adversely affected by a state disaster. Section 28 also states that the Governor may also dissolve the Assembly and call an election for an earlier date if the Government has lost the confidence of the Assembly or a bill of special importance has been rejected by the Legislative Council. Section 41 states that both the Council and the Assembly may also be dissolved simultaneously if a deadlock occurs between them.[3]
The election campaign must run for a minimum of 25 days or a maximum of 55 days, therefore the Governor would need to have issued writs for the election by 23 February 2010 at the latest. Between 7 and 10 days after that date, the electoral roll is closed, which gives voters a final opportunity to enrol or to notify the State Electoral Office of any changes in their place of residence. Candidates wishing to stand for election can nominate between the issue of the writs and no more than 14 days after the close of rolls for a deposit of $450.[4]
The writs were issued 20 February, the electoral roll closed March 2, and candidate nominations closed March 5.
The centre-left Labor Party, led by Premier Mike Rann, and the centre-right Liberal Party, led by Leader of the Opposition Isobel Redmond, are the two main parties in South Australia. In the 2006 state election, of 47 seats total, Labor won 28 seats, the Liberals won 15 seats and the Nationals, who are not in coalition with the Liberals in South Australia, retained their seat through minister Karlene Maywald (Chaffey). Three seats were retained by independents, minister Rory McEwen (Mount Gambier), Bob Such (Fisher) and Kris Hanna (Mitchell). Smaller parties which hold no seats in the lower House but achieved significant votes in 2006 include the SA Greens and the Family First Party.
Former Liberal Premier Rob Kerin resigned in November 2008, which triggered a Frome by-election on 17 January 2009. Independent Geoff Brock won the seat, reducing the Liberals to 14 seats.
The following pendulum[5] is known as the Mackerras Pendulum, invented by psephologist Malcolm Mackerras. The pendulum works by lining up all of the seats held in the House of Assembly according to the percentage point margin they are held by on a two party preferred basis. This is also known as the swing required for the seat to change hands. Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted. Two-party margins and image geography are post-redistribution.[6] Marginal 0–5.99 percent, Fairly Safe 6–10 percent, Safe >10 percent.[7]
| LABOR SEATS | |||
| Marginal | |||
| Light | Tony Piccolo | ALP | 2.4% |
| Mawson | Leon Bignell | ALP | 2.7% |
| Norwood | Vini Ciccarello | ALP | 3.7% |
| Newland | Tom Kenyon | ALP | 5.2% |
| Hartley | Grace Portolesi | ALP | 5.6% |
| Fairly safe | |||
| Morialta | Lindsay Simmons | ALP | 6.8% |
| Bright | Chloe Fox | ALP | 6.9% |
| Safe | |||
| Adelaide | Jane Lomax-Smith | ALP | 10.6% |
| Florey | Frances Bedford | ALP | 12.0% |
| Wright | Jennifer Rankine | ALP | 15.3% |
| Ashford | Stephanie Key | ALP | 15.3% |
| Elder | Pat Conlon | ALP | 15.4% |
| Giles | Lyn Breuer | ALP | 15.9% |
| Colton | Paul Caica | ALP | 16.1% |
| Little Para | Lea Stevens | ALP | 17.3% |
| Reynell | Gay Thompson | ALP | 18.1% |
| West Torrens | Tom Koutsantonis | ALP | 18.4% |
| Torrens | Robyn Geraghty | ALP | 19.2% |
| Very safe | |||
| Lee | Michael Wright | ALP | 20.4% |
| Kaurna | John Hill | ALP | 21.6% |
| Napier | Michael O'Brien | ALP | 23.9% |
| Enfield | John Rau | ALP | 24.8% |
| Cheltenham | Jay Weatherill | ALP | 25.3% |
| Port Adelaide | Kevin Foley | ALP | 25.5% |
| Playford | Jack Snelling | ALP | 25.7% |
| Croydon | Michael Atkinson | ALP | 26.1% |
| Taylor | Trish White | ALP | 26.4% |
| Ramsay | Mike Rann | ALP | 28.5% |
| LIBERAL SEATS | |||
| Marginal | |||
| Stuart | Graham Gunn | LIB | 0.4% |
| Unley | David Pisoni | LIB | 2.4% |
| Morphett | Duncan McFetridge | LIB | 3.6% |
| Waite | Martin Hamilton-Smith | LIB | 4.3% |
| Finniss | Michael Pengilly | LIB | 4.9% |
| Heysen | Isobel Redmond | LIB | 5.5% |
| Fairly safe | |||
| Davenport | Iain Evans | LIB | 6.5% |
| Schubert | Ivan Venning | LIB | 7.0% |
| Kavel | Mark Goldsworthy | LIB | 8.4% |
| Goyder | Steven Griffiths | LIB | 9.0% |
| Safe | |||
| Flinders | Liz Penfold | LIB | 10.1% v NAT |
| Hammond | Adrian Pederick | LIB | 11.3% |
| Bragg | Vickie Chapman | LIB | 11.8% |
| Very safe | |||
| MacKillop | Mitch Williams | LIB | 21.7% |
| Independents | |||
| Mitchell | Kris Hanna | IND | 0.6% v ALP |
| Frome | Geoff Brock | IND | 1.7% v LIB |
| Mt Gambier | Rory McEwen | IND | 6.2% v LIB |
| Fisher | Bob Such | IND | 16.7% v ALP |
| Chaffey | Karlene Maywald | NAT | 17.2% v LIB |
Labor and the Liberals hold eight seats each, whilst No Pokies and Family First hold two seats each. The SA Greens and an ex-Democrat independent hold one seat each. Half of the upper house is up for election in 2010, four Labor and five Liberal, one Family First and one ex-Democrat independent.
No Pokies MP Nick Xenophon, re-elected in 2006 until 2014, was replaced by former No Pokies candidate John Darley after Xenophon's resignation to run for the Australian Senate at the 2007 federal election in which he was successful. Former Liberal MP Robert Brokenshire replaced Family First MP Andrew Evans as an MLC in 2008. The last remaining Democrats MP anywhere in Australia, Sandra Kanck, chose to resign before the end of her term, which prompted a party membership ballot to choose a replacement in early 2009. David Winderlich was selected. He resigned from the party in late 2009 to sit in parliament as an independent.
| Current (2006-2010) members of the South Australian Legislative Council | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Labor | Liberal | No Pokies | Family First | SA Greens | Independent |
|
2006: |
2006: |
2006: |
2006: |
2006: |
2002: |
Newspoll polling is conducted via random telephone number selection in city and country areas. Sampling sizes consist of around 800-900 electors. The declared margin of error is ±3.5 percent.
| Date | Labor Rann |
Liberal Redmond |
|---|---|---|
| Jan – Mar 2010 | 44% | 41% |
| Oct – Dec 2009 | 48% | 31% |
| Jul – Aug 2009 | 46% | 27% |
| Jan – Mar 2009 | 53% | 24%3 |
| Oct – Dec 2008 | 50% | 26%3 |
| Jul – Sep 2008 | 48% | 30%3 |
| Apr – Jun 2008 | 54% | 27%3 |
| Jan – Mar 2008 | 54% | 24%3 |
| Oct – Dec 2007 | 50% | 25%3 |
| Jul – Sep 2007 | 52% | 26%3 |
| Apr – Jun 2007 | 52% | 21%3 |
| Jan – Mar 2007 | 64% | 14%2 |
| Oct – Dec 2006 | 61% | 14%2 |
| Pre 2006 election | 63% | 21%1 |
| Pre 2002 election | 30% | 50%1 |
| Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian. ^ Remainder were "uncommitted" to either leader. 1 Rob Kerin, 2 Iain Evans, 3 Martin Hamilton-Smith |
||
| Political parties | Two party preferred | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALP | Lib | Nat | Dem | FFP | Grn | Oth | ALP | Lib | ||
| Jan – Mar 2010 | 36% | 39% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 10% | 12% | 50% | 50% | |
| Oct – Dec 2009 | 37% | 35% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 12% | 13% | 53% | 47% | |
| Jul – Aug 2009 | 41% | 33% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 11% | 12% | 56% | 44% | |
| Jan – Mar 2009 | 42% | 34% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 10% | 11% | 56% | 44% | |
| Oct – Dec 2008 | 39% | 35% | 1% | < .5% | 1% | 13% | 11% | 54% | 46% | |
| Jul – Sep 2008 | 38% | 40% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 8% | 11% | 50% | 50% | |
| Apr – Jun 2008 | 41% | 35% | 1% | < .5% | 2% | 12% | 9% | 54% | 46% | |
| Jan – Mar 2008 | 41% | 37% | < .5% | 1% | 1% | 8% | 10% | 53% | 47% | |
| Oct – Dec 2007 | 42% | 36% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 7% | 9% | 54% | 46% | |
| Jul – Sep 2007 | 48% | 33% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 6% | 8% | 59% | 41% | |
| Apr – Jun 2007 | 47% | 35% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 9% | 57% | 43% | |
| Jan – Mar 2007 | 48% | 29% | 1% | 4% | 2% | 6% | 10% | 61% | 39% | |
| Oct – Dec 2006 | 47% | 33% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 10% | 58% | 42% | |
| 2006 Election | 45.2% | 34% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 3.4% | 56.8% | 43.2% | |
| 15 – 16 Mar 2006 | 46% | 33% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 3% | 4% | 11% | 57% | 43% | |
| Jan – Feb 2006 | 44% | 37% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 10% | 54% | 46% | |
| Oct – Dec 2005 | 46% | 35% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 10% | 56% | 43% | |
| Jul – Sep 2005 | 45% | 38% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 4% | 9% | 54% | 46% | |
| Apr – Jun 2005 | 46% | 37% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 8% | 55% | 45% | |
| Jan – Mar 2005 | 45% | 40% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 7% | 53% | 47% | |
| Oct – Dec 2004 | 42% | 42% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 7% | 49% | 51% | |
| 2002 Election | 36.3% | 40% | 1.5% | 7.5% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 9.7% | 49.1% | 50.9% | |
| Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian. |
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Rann opened his campaign by promising a $445 million duplication of the Southern Expressway. This upgrade will allow traffic to flow in both directions and be completed by 2014. [8] The Premier also promises to recruit and train up to 155 specialist maths and science teachers to work in South Australian high schools. [9] In Norwood for his official campaign launch Mr Rann promised 62,600 extra training places and apprenticeships to help meet his pledge of 100,000 extra jobs during the next six years if re-elected. [10]
Redmond said WorkCover's dual roles led to a decrease in accountability and contributed to its budget problems so under a Liberal government WorkCover's insurance and regulatory arms would be split. [11] Redmond also announced, if elected, than 600 businesses would no longer have to pay payroll tax under a plan to lift the threshold to $700,000. She would lift the rate from the current $600,000 threshold to $650,000 from July 1 next year and to $700,000 from July 1, 2012.[12] The Liberals have promised a new 55-bed hospital in Tanunda, to replace the Angaston Hospital which would be demolished and the current Tanunda Hospital transformed into an aged-care facility. [13]
One of the key issues of this state election is that voters now having two different options for the future of the Royal Adelaide Hospital in the city. Labor is proposing a brand-new hospital on the site of the old rail yards at the western end of North Terrace. The Liberals have chosen a rebuilding proposal on the current hospital site.[14] [15]
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