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Swing (politics): Wikis

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An electoral swing analysis (or swing) shows the extent of change in voter support from one election to another. It can be used as a means of comparison between individual candidates or political parties for a given electoral region or demographic.

The swing is calculated by comparing the percentage of voter support from one election to another. The percentage value of the comparative elections results are compared with the corresponding results of the substantive election.

The swing is the percentage of voter support minus the comparative percentage of voter support corresponding to the same electorate or demographic.

Contents

Calculation

A swing is calculated by comparing the percentage of the vote in a particular election to the percentage of the belonging to the same party or candidate at the previous election

Percentage of vote (current election) minus percentage of vote (previous election)

It can also be used in comparing a shift in voter intentions in analysing political polls.

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Example

An example is the comparison between the 2006 and 2007 Ukrainian Parliamentary elections.

Swing Analysis comparison Ukrainian Parliamentary Elections 2006 to 2007:
Swing 2006 to 2007 (Top Six parties) Swing by Electoral Regions

The above charts show the change in voter support for each of the six major political parties by electoral district and nation wide vote results.

The data is derived from the official published election results.

Australia

The term "swing" has a different meaning in Australia, which uses a preferential voting system.

United Kingdom

Swing in a British political context is a single figure used as an indication of the scale of voter change between two political parties. It originated as a mathematical calculation for comparing the results of two constituencies. Britain uses a First-past-the-post voting system.

United States of America

Swing in the United States can refer to Swing state, those states that are known to shift in outcome between Democrats and Republican Parties. Other States are considered non Swing States as they rarely change in outcome. The extent of change in political outcome is heavily influenced by the voting system in use. In the United States they use a First-past-the-post voting system.


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