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Ukrainian presidential election, 2010
(first round) 17 January 2010
Viktor Yushchenko in Polish parliament..jpg Julia Tymoshenko 2008.png Yanu.jpg
Nominee Viktor Yushchenko (Incumbent) Yulia Tymoshenko Viktor Yanukovych
Party Our Ukraine Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc Party of Regions
Arseniy Yatseniuk.jpg Petro Symonenko head.jpg Сергій Тигіпко.jpg
Nominee Arseniy Yatsenyuk Petro Symonenko Sergei Tigipko
Party Yatsenyuk's Front for change Communist Party of Ukraine Labour Ukraine
Ukraine

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Ukraine's next presidential election (first round) is scheduled to be held on January 17, 2010[1][2].

This election will be Ukraine's fifth presidential election since declaring independence from the Soviet Union in 1991.

The President of Ukraine is elected by the citizens of Ukraine for a five-year term, on the basis of universal, equal and direct suffrage, by secret ballot. One and the same person shall not be the President of Ukraine for more than two consecutive terms.

A candidate seeking election must be a citizen of Ukraine who has attained the age of thirty-five, has the right to vote, has resided in Ukraine for the past ten years prior to the day of elections, and has command of the state language as required by Article 103 of Ukraine's Constitution.

Nominations by parties and candidates to run in the election closed on November 6, 2009.[3] Eighteen candidates in all have been nominated. The Central Election Committee has until November 11 to process documentation and finalize the election list.

On January 17, 2010 polling stations will be open from 8 a.m. to 10 p.m.[3]

Contents

Law on presidential elections

Ukraine's President is elected by a two-round voting system. If no candidate in the first round ballot has 50% or more votes then the two highest polling candidates face off in a second round of the elections. The first round of voting is scheduled for January 17, 2010. If required, a second round ballot is expected to take place on February 7, 2010.

On July 24, 2009 the Verkhovna Rada (Ukrainian parliament) passed a bill amending the Law on Presidential Elections which included a reduction of the official presidential campaign from 120 to 90 days.[4][5] [6] On August 18 Victor Yushchenko vetoed the proposed amendments on the Law on Presidential Elections. In response the Parliament convened a special session on August 21, 2009 and 325 out of 371 members of parliament voted to override the president's veto.[7]

The new law on the Presidential elections also requires candidates to pay a 2,500,000 hryvnias nomination deposit which will be refunded only to the two highest polling candidates that progress to the second round of voting. President Viktor Yushchenko refused to sign the new law and lodged an appeal in Ukraine's Constitutional Court, but failed to outline in detail the grounds for any appeal.[8] The speaker of the parliament, Volodymyr Lytvyn, signed the amended law into existence following the President's refusal to sign it.

Maryna Stavniychuk, deputy head of the presidential secretariat and the President's spokesperson on legal matters stated "It is obvious that there are no serious political or legal grounds to consider the issue of the possible disruption of the presidential elections in Ukraine" [9]

Yulia Tymoshenko, Ukraine's Prime-minister and one of the main candidates seeking election in January's poll has stated that “We will not challenge any election returns to avoid tremors, which may bring about instability in this country. If the people elect their president, and this is not Yulia Tymoshenko, I will take this choice easy, for sure”[10]

Former President Leonid Kuchma has also excluded the possibility of a third round ballot. According to Kuchma, "during the election campaign in 2004 the decision about holding the third round was political and it will not be repeated. The 2004 decision was an exclusion from a rule".[11]

On October 19, 2009 the Central Election Commission of Ukraine formed the 225 territorial election districts needed for carrying out the election.[12]

October 20, 2009 Ukraine's Constitutional Court announced its ruling declaring unconstitutional five aspects of the new law of the Presidential election. Voters abroad will no longer have to be registered with the Ukrainian consulate in order to cast a vote. The courts will retain the right to consider without limitations any application or appeal in respect to a candidate's registration or the conduct of the election. The cancellation of absentee ballots remains as does the 90 day election period and the 2.5 million hryvnia deposit. The ruling of the Constitutional Court is not expected to impact seriously on the election as the amended legislation remains in place. [13][14]

on December 21, 2009 the Central Election Commission of Ukraine formed 113 foreign polling stations.[15]

Voters are permitted to vote at home during the Presidential election.[16]

Costs

The Central Election Commission has estimated the budget of the holding of regular presidential elections in Ukraine at 1.5 Billion hryvnias[17] (approximately 200 million US dollars) with additional costs required by candidates to fund their campaigns.

Each candidate is required to pay an election deposit of 2.5 million hryvnias (Approximately 300,000 US dollars) The deposit will be refunded to the two highest polling candidates who progress to the second round of elections.

On November 26 the Central Election Commission stated a total of 1.314 billion hryvnias is required to hold the presidential election, including 192.2 million in 2009 and 1.122 billion in 2010.[18]

Assessments by political analysts show that each presidential candidate will have to spend at least US $150–200mn to promote himself; this includes buying story lines in the media, visual advertising, canvassing, printing political material and, of course, work with electoral commissions.[19]

Chairman of the Committee of Voters of Ukraine, Oleksandr Chernenko, also commented that Presidential candidates will spend 1 billion US dollars on the election campaign[20]

Time table

Ukraine's Central Electoral Commission (CEC) has set the following timetable for the conduct of the election:[3][21]

  • October 19: Official 90 day Election Campaign period commences
  • October 20 to November 6: Nominations open
  • November 9: Deadline for nomination document/submissions

CEC has five days to assess and approve or reject nominations

  • November 11: Deadline for candidates to submit any corrections to documentation
  • November 13: CEC to finalize registration of nominations
  • November 15: CEC to publish nomination lists of candidates

CEC provides certified copies of the voters list to all candidates. Within Three days of registration Candidates must provide a statement of assets and income. Candidates allowed to commence official campaign one day after registration is finalized.

  • December 9: Foreign polling stations to be set up.[22]
  • December 15: CEC to approve ballot paper format ready for printing.
  • December 21: Deadline for withdrawals of candidature.
  • January 2: Last day for public opinion polls to be published prior to election.
  • January 9: All ballot papers to be printed and ready for distribution to polling stations/districts.
  • January 15: Last day of public campaigning before polling day
  • January 17: Election (First round ballot) Polling commences 8AM and closes 10PM
  • January 22: Tabulation of overseas and territorial polling place to be completed
  • January 27: Determination of voting results and declaration of poll

If no single candidate has 50% or more of the total votes recorded the two highest polling candidates progress to a second round ballot. Information in relation to the dates for a possible run-off ballot has not been published. If required the run-off ballot is expected to be held on February 21, 2010

Background

In Ukraine, the previous two presidential first round ballots have traditionally occurred in October.

According to the Constitution of Ukraine, regular elections of the President of Ukraine are held on the last Sunday of the last month of the fifth year of the term of authority of the President of Ukraine. In the event of pre-term termination of authority of the President of Ukraine, elections of the President of Ukraine are held within ninety days from the day of termination of the authority.

Early Presidential elections can be held in case of presidential resignation, ill-health, impeachment or death.

On April 1, 2009, the Verkhovna Rada designated October 25, 2009 as the date for the first round of voting. Within a week, President Yushchenko filed an appeal with the Constitutional Court against Verkhovna Rada's October 25 date. The President's appeal argued that his inauguration on January 23, 2005 was the commencement of his five-year term of office and as such the next presidential election must be set for the last Sunday before January 23, 2010 in accordance with Article 103.[23]

On May 13, 2009 the court ruled in Yushchenko's favor, striking out the October 25th date for the elections.[24] On May 14, 2009, the Party of Regions leader Viktor Yanukovych stated that the presidential elections should now be held on January 17, 2010.[25][26][27]

On June 23, 2009 the Parliament rescheduled the date for the election for Sunday January 17, 2010 with 399 lawmakers out of 442 lawmakers registered in the session hall voted “for” the resolution “On appointing of regular election of President of Ukraine”.

Minister of Internal Affairs Yuriy Lutsenko said on September 21, 2009 that he believes that the lists of voters at this Presidential election will be more qualitative and more “clear” than it was at previous elections because "double names" were removed from the list[28]. The same day the Party of Regions complained about a lot of mistakes in that list and that the number of voters fell in the Southern Ukraine and Eastern Ukraine and increased by 0.5-1% in Western Ukraine[29]. It is the first time the state register of voters will be used in a Ukrainian election[29].

Nominated candidates

Опитування Центру Разумкова 2009.PNG

The following candidates have submitted registration documentation for the Presidential elections (in ballot paper order)[30]

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Excluded candidates

All together the Central Election Commission had rejected sixteen applications for candidate registration[71]

The Central Election Commission refused to register Oleksandr Hordiichuk, Olena Osnach, Oleksandr Luzan, Hanna Kostiv, Oleksandr Vaschenko, Oleksandr Ohorodnikov, Vasyl Handula, Yurii Petlevana, Petro Rekalo, Anatolii Polischuk, Mykhailo Hamaniuk, Oleksandr Vretyk, Artem Polezhaka, Oleh Omelchenko, Natalia Vitrenko[53], Mykola Melnychenko, Serhii Martyian and Serhiy Schetinin. The reason stated was due to errors in their documentation, qualifications or failure to pay the required 2.5 million hrivina nomination deposit.[72][73][74][75]

Nominations closed on November 9, 2009. The Central Election Commission had until November 11 to process nomination documentations and November 13 to finalize the election list.

Electoral campaign

Yatsenyuk tent 2009.jpg
Yatsenyuk promotion (august 2009)

Рекляма Тимошенко 2010 рік.jpg
"She Works" billboard (august 2009)

Crowd before start 25dec09 3078.JPG
Нет Ворюле!, anti-Tymoshenko plackard,
rally Dnipropetrovsk, 25 Dec 2009

2Normal 25Dec09 3288.JPG
Concert and rally for Yanukovych,
Dnipropetrovsk, 25 Dec 2009

Anatoliy Grytsenko poster 26dec09 3478.JPG
Anatoliy Grytsenko poster,
Dnipropetrovsk, 25 Dec 2009

The official Presidential campaign commenced on October 19, 2009 with nominations opening on October 20 through to November 6. The "unofficial" campaign had already started during the summer of 2009 with tents of Front for Change distributing campaign material for Arseniy Yatsenyuk Front for Changes and large scale and billboards stating Others make problems. She Works (in the colors and letter type of Bloc Yulia Tymoshenko), and photos of Serhiy Tihipko displayed in most Ukrainian towns and TV-adds of Yulia Tymoshenko and Volodymyr Lytvyn shown on national TV.[76][77] According to Tymoshenko the "She Works" billboards were paid for by the Fatherland Party, and therefore they were also "social". Party of Regions deputy Andry Paruby officially requested that the prosecutor-general's office investigates the sources of financing of Tymoshenko's advertisements. He suggested that public money might have been used[77].

Ukraine has proven more than once the degree to which the success of an election campaign depends on the level of professionalism and political spin techniques applied in election campaigns.[78]

The most popular candidates are former Prime Minister and leader of the Opposition party Viktor Yanukovych and current Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko.

Incumbent President Viktor Yushchenko's support has slumped from a high of 52% in 2004 to below 3% in Ukrainian public opinion polls. Most political commentators regard him as a heavy underdog who stands little chance of being re-elected to a second term of office.[79] A recent public opinion poll indicated that 83% of Ukrainians will not vote for Yushchenko[80]

On April 5, 2009, Arseniy Yatseniuk, former Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada announced his intention to run in the election.[81] His popularity has slowly risen to around 12%-14% and is now in third place behind Yanukovych and Tymoshenko.[82]

According to Oxford Analytica the working relationship between President Yushchenko and his Prime Minister Tymoshenko will be further complicated by the search of Yushchenko for partners other than Tymoshenko's Bloc Yulia Tymoshenko who will ensure his re-election.[83] Since Yushchenko dismissed Tymoshenko as Prime Minister on September 8, 2005 the relations between Tymoshenko and Yushchenko,[84][85][86][87], including the Secretariat of the President of Ukraine,[88] have been hostile.[89] In an interview with the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung of 11 February, 2009 Tymoshenko said her recent conflict with the President is a political competition and not ideological antagonisms and she empathized that the "election struggle for the next presidential elections has virtually begun."[90] During a visit to Brussels on February 10, 2009 Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada Volodymyr Lytvyn seconded that.[91] In late February 2009, President Yushchenko called on all Ukrainian politicians to "stop the presidential election campaign until July 1."[92][93]

On June 16, 2009 Tymsoshenko accused Yuschenko, Yatseniuk and Yanukovych of having the same campaign headquarters financed by (businessman and) RosUkrEnergo owner Dmytro Firtash.[94][95][96]

Tymoshenko stated on June 22, 2009: “There is a team work on solving these issues between the President and the Prime Minister. Professional advice and support of the President will help the government during difficult times”.[97]

On August 11, 2009 Russian President Medvedev in an open letter [98] directed at Viktor Yushchenko, raised a number of issues of concern related to the perceived "anti-Russian position of the current Ukrainian authorities". The Russian President's comments[99] were considered by analysts and others including the President of Ukraine as Russia's interference in Ukraine's domestic affairs.[100][101][102][103][104][105][106]

On September 12, 2009 a tour called “With Ukraine in Heart” in support of Yulia Tymoshenko kick-started on Kiev's Maidan Nezalezhnosti. The most popular singers and bands of Ukraine took part in the tour.[107][108][109]

On September 14, 2009 the Communist Party of Ukraine , the Social Democratic Party of Ukraine (united), the Justice Party and the Union of Leftists signed an agreement on creating the bloc of leftists and center-leftists and a unitary participation in the presidential election.[110][111]

The Pechersky district court in Kiev on September 22, 2009 banned "any unfair advertisement" against Tymoshenko in response to a video (allegedly made by the Party of Regions), which claimed that Tymoshenko does not deliver on her promises. The video reportedly mocked Tymoshenko's main campaign slogan "She Works," which is frequently used in her advertisements.[77]

In October 2009 representatives of the Western Ukrainian intelligentsia called upon the candidates Yuschenko, Yatseniuk, Hrytsenko and "other representatives of national democratic forces" to withdraw in favour of Tymoshenko[112].

On October 6, 2009 the incumbent President Yushchenko warned that there may be attempts to use regional television and radio companies to create advantages for the government in the election campaign.[113]

October 17, 2009 The Social-Democratic Party of Ukraine has backed a decision to create the bloc of left and center-left political forces and supported the leader of the Communist Party of Ukraine Petro Symonenko as a single candidate for the post of the Ukrainian president from left political forces[114]

October 19 Official start of the Elections campaign 90 day period.

October 20 Candidate nomination registration opens. Oleh Riabokon first candidate to officially nominate.

October 20, Ukrainian Parliament voted to amend Ukraine's Constitution (390 out of 438 in favor) to remove provision related to Parliamentary immunity that prevents a member of parliament from being criminally liable, detained or arrested without the consent of the Verkhovna Rada. An earlier proposal to only remove immunity from the the Parliament was defeated. The proposed new provisions also limits presidential immunity. The president can not be detained or arrested without the consent of the parliament however on conviction of an offense the President automatically loses office. The proposed amendments have been forwarded to Ukraine's Constitutional Court for review and will need to be reaffirmed by the parliament in February 2010 [115]

Political Analyst and senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, Andrew Wilson, has cast doubt on Arseny Yatseniuk, currently Ukraine's third most popular candidate, ability to maintain his meteoritic rise following a decline in his ratings dropping from a high of 13% in August to 9% in October. "Yatseniuk must look to plan B"[116]

On November 6 the nominations were closed. The same day a Viktor Yushchenko aide amidst concern over the recent flu outbreak which claimed 97 lives has proposed the cancellation of the January election until May 2010 which would extend the President's term of office a further six months.[117] The World Health Organisation has stated that they expect a second and third wave of infections to occur in Spring (April to June) [118] bringing into further doubt Yushchenko's proposed cancellation. Under Ukraine's Constitution the elections can be canceled if a State of Emergency is declared. Also on November 6. 2009 the Emergencies Ministry stated it saw no grounds to introduce a state of emergency in Ukraine due to the flu epidemic.[119] On November 9 President Yushchenko said the same.[120][121]

Serhy Lutsenko, the deputy head of the People’s Self-Defense party expressed on November 11, 2009 concern that Viktor Yushchenko will support his past rival, Viktor Yanukovych, in a run-off election between Yanukovch and Tymoshenko.[122]

On December 3, 2009 the Ukrainian National Council on Television and Radio Broadcasting complained that certain TV channels did not give equal conditions to all presidential candidates.[123]

On December 11, 2009 the European People's Party EPP called on "Ukraine's democratic forces" to unite around the most democratic candidate who will win through to the presidential run-off. All-Ukrainian Union "Fatherland", the Our Ukraine People's Union, and the People's Movement of Ukraine (Rukh) are the EPP's partners in Ukraine.[124]

On December 11, 2009 candidate Viktor Yanukovych stated that his Party of Regions possesses information that "government representatives are currently "motivating" the chairmen of election commissions and seeking options for victory in every possible way" and called for his supporters go to the Maidan Nezalezhnosti in case of election fraud.[125]

Issues

The list of major issues raised in the campaign to date include

According to the Director of the Penta Center for Political Studies Volodymyr Fesenko there where only small differences in the election programs of the various candidates.[130]

Fraud

A December 2009 poll found that 82 percent of Ukrainians expect vote rigging, these fears are shared by election observers, both international and domestic. The later also fearing the lack of an independent exit poll; which they see as essential to deterring vote fraud.[131]

Viktor Baloha, former presidential secretary under Viktor Yushchenko stated "Alarming declarations about the likely vote rigging directly point to organizational weaknesses of some candidates as the law allows for reliable barriers against any electoral fraud. For instance, any presidential candidate can send his 2 representatives to sit on local and regional electoral commissions, appoint observers to keep an eye on voting and counting of ballots. Proxies of candidates who have wide authority can also supervise the course of the voting". "There are more than enough supervisory tools. Other effective barriers to electoral fraud are the Central Election Commission [whose members are appointed by major parliamentary parties on a quota principle] and numerous international observers. Mass media and NGOs, notably, the Committee of Voters of Ukraine, will also be effective in helping to curb fraud. Of great importance for establishing the final tally are also exit polls run by respected polling companies.they will all be used during the campaign." adding that "All the more so that there are 18 presidential candidates, some having considerable weight. That is why any declarations about the likely fraud are just attempts to justify a defeat of those who make them. Note that those candidates who are selling themselves as strong-willed and tough are most given to such declarations. In fact, such declarations expose them as would-be losers and outsiders” [132]

Candidates Victor Yanukovych and Yulia Tymoshenko both accused the other that they will use vote rigging to win the election during the election campaign.[133][134] Early January 2010 Ukrainian President Viktor Yuschenko warned that there is a real threat of "administrative pressure" being applied during the counting of votes at the presidential election. Viktor Yushchenko without providing any details has alleged that the highest threat of falsification in the first round will be applied by Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc; "because candidate Viktor Yanukovych will enter the second round in any case".[135]

Allegations have been made that Viktor Yushchenko has made a deal with Viktor Yanukovych in order to secure a number of political positions for members of his team in exchange for supporting Viktor Yanukovych's campaign [136] Concern has been expressed that Viktor Yushchenko had tried to prevent news of the deal from being published by declaring it a State Secret.[137].

A joint poll conducted by Democratic Initiatives and Ukrainian Sociology Service of January 2010 showed that less than 5% of the polled believed that the presidential election would be fair with 41.4% respondents that believed that the election results could be manipulated and 15.7% being certain that the entire vote would be rigged.[138] According to the same poll 5.8% of the polled stated they were ready to sell their votes if the sum suited them and 1.9% of the respondents where ready to sell their votes for any presidential candidates and for any funds.[139]

A voter casting more than one ballot, or selling her/his vote, could face as much as two years jail time.[140]

Opinion polls

January 2, 2010 was the beginning of the 15 day media blackout on reporting of election polls before the January 17 first round election. [141]

A poll released December 15, 2009 by the International Foundation for Electoral Systems has indicated that Viktor Yanukovych (31%)as the most likely to win the Presidential election in a contest with Yulia Tymmosheko (19%).[142] All other candidates were below 5% with Victor Yushchenko on 3.5% with a negativity rating of 83%. The survey also indicated that Ukrainians are pessimistic about the socio-political situation in the country. Seventy-four percent believe Ukraine is on a path toward instability and more than nine in ten Ukrainians are dissatisfied with the economic (96%) and political situation (92%) in the country.

According to other recent opinion polls, the Party of Regions candidate Viktor Yanukovych (25.0% to 33.3%) was placed first among viable presidential candidates, with Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko (15.5% to 18.4%) coming in second, and Front for Change candidate Arseniy Yatsenyuk (6.7% to 14.5%) in third place. Incumbent President, Viktor Yushchenko (2.0% to 3.8%) following his decline in popularity with the Ukrainian public comes in at a distant sixth place behind leader of the Communist Party Petro Symonenko (3.4% to 4.5%) and Parliamentary speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn (1.4% to 5.8%).[143][144]

Publication Date December 17 , 2009

Source: Research & Branding Group[145]

Poll Date December 5 to 13, 2009

Candidate Party 1st choice Run-off Ballot
Viktor Yanukovych PoR 33.3% 46.7%
Yulia Tymoshenko BYuT 16.6% 30.0%
Sergiy Tigipko LPU 7.4%
Arseniy Yatsenyuk Y-Front 6.7%
Volodymyr Lytvyn LPB 4.1%
Viktor Yushchenko OU 3.8%
Petro Symonenko CPU 3.4%
Others 3.2%
Against all 9.0% 13.2%
Not going to vote 3.5% 3.6%
Undecided 9.0% 6.5%
sum 100.0% 100%

Information gathering were conducting by personal interview method in the 24 oblasts of Ukraine and АР Crimea. Respondents were selected by quota sample, representing the adult population of the state by the residing place (oblast), sex and age. Sample's volume - 3083 persons. The estimated average sample error amounts to +1,8%.

A survey conducted by U.S.-based International Foundation for Electoral Systems and financed by the United States Agency for International Development (November 21 to 29) lists Viktor Yushchenko as the highest negativity rating (83%) and Viktor Yanukovych with the most positive rating (42%) [146]

According to an opinion poll conducted by FOM-Ukraine in September/October 2009 the turnout is expected to be at least 85.1%.[147] A poll carried out by the Oleksandr Yaremenko Institute for Social Research in December 2009 predicted (at least) a 70% turnout.[148]

Media are prohibited by Ukrainian law from reporting the results of public opinion polls for the election (starting) from January 2 until election day on January 17, 2009.[149] According to a Russian poll taken in the last week of campaign Serhiy Tihipko might be the unexpected outsider.[150]

Progressive opinion polls table

Conducted by

Candidate Party

2004 Presidential election FOM - Ukraine FOM - Ukraine Razumkov Centre USS SOCIS Institute of social and political psychology Razumkov Centre Research & Branding Group KMIS FOM - Ukraine FOM - Ukraine Research & Branding Group Ukrainian Project System SOCIS Research & Branding Group SOCIS FOM - Ukraine Research & Branding Group Research & Branding Group KIIS FOM - Ukraine Research & Branding Group
Date from 31-Oct-04 14-Dec-07 25-Jan-08 31-Jan-08 16-Apr-08 30-Aug-08 24-Nov-08 17-Dec-08 1-Apr-09 03-Apr-09 13-Apr-09 17-May-09 12-Jun-09 21-Jul-09 24-Jul-09 4-Aug-09 20-Sep-09 26-Sep-09 12-Oct-09 17-Nov-09 21-Nov-09 22-Nov-09 5-Dec-09
Date to 26-Dec-04 23-Dec-07 02-Feb-08 05-Feb-08 04-May-08 08-Sep-08 30-Nov-08 24-Dec-08 9-Apr-09 12-Apr-09 25-Apr-09 26-May-09 22-Jun-09 20-Jul-09 04-Aug-09 14-Aug-09 01-Oct-09 04-Oct-09 31-Oct-09 25-Nov-09 29-Nov-09 30-Nov-09 13-Dec-09
Reference * [151] [152] ** [153] ** [154] [155] [156] ** [157] [158] [159] [160] ** [161] [162] ** [163] ** [164] ** [165] [166] ** [167] ** [168] ** [169] ** [170] **
Viktor Yanukovych PoR 39.3 44.2 24.4 20.0 22.8 27.0 41.0 25.1 34.6 20.7 19.8 27.9 38.4 25.6 21.9 26.6 26.8 38.8 24.0 25.0 26.1 26.0 39.6 28.7 40.3 26.8 31.0 41.9 32.4 47.4 31.2 42.0 29.8 41.0 33.3 46.7
Yulia Tymoshenko BYuT 19.8 24.8 25.9 26.0 44.0 26.0 32.7 17.9 15.8 15.6 29.3 14.4 15.3 16.2 16.8 28.8 12.8 20.5 24.4 16.5 28.0 19.0 32.6 15.6 18.4 29.8 16.3 28.1 19.1 28.0 14.8 25.2 16.6 30.0
Serhiy Tihipko 1.4 2.6 1.6 3.6 4.4 4.8 5.7 7.4
Arseniy Yatsenyuk Y-Front 2.6 4.6 6.6 13.4 13.6 13.8 12.8 12.3 5.7 14.5 12.6 8.2 9.3 9.6 6.1 4.7 4.8 6.7
Volodymyr Lytvyn LPB 3.1 3.7 6.0 4.9 3.8 5.4 5.5 2.9 3.5 2.9 3.9 8.7 5.9 4.2 2.8 1.4 2.3 4.5 2.8 2.5 4.1
Viktor Yushchenko OU 39.9 52.0 12.7 13.1 14.5 8.0 6.5 3.9 4.5 1.9 2.4 2.2 1.9 2.1 2.9 3.8 2.0 2.8 2.2 3.5 3.5 3.5 4.3 3.8
Petro Symonenko CPU 5.0 3.7 4.2 4.3 5.0 5.3 3.8 3.3 4.3 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.7 4.5 3.6 4.0 3.5 3.8 3.8 2.9 3.4
Inna Bohoslovska 3.0 1.3 0.8 0.7
Oleksandr Moroz SPU 5.8 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4 <1
Oleh Tyahnybok AUUF 0.9 0.9 2.3 2.0 1.9 1.5 1.0 1.8
Anatoliy Hrytsenko OU 0.4 <1 0.7 0.7
Others 8.0 1.3 0.9 0.4 2.1 6.9 10.4 2.6 7.3 0.2 3.0 1.6 2.4 3.2
Against all 2.0 3.8 7.9 6.1 6.7 7.9 9.0 19.0 11.1 8.0 16.6 9.9 19.0 9.4 17 15.2 6.8 7.5 7.9 18.0 12.7 20.7 9.0 13.2
Will Not vote 7.2 8.0 11.0 8.6 8.2 9.4 5.6 8.9 9.0 6.6 6.8 1.4 6.7 6.8 4.3 4.5 5.0 3.5 3.6
Not sure 15.1 18.1 11.9 33.0 8.1 7.4 5.0 13.6 12.6 9.4 6.8 10.4 6.4 20.3 8.8 6.7 9.0 15.9 7.5 11.6 9.0 6.5
sum 100.0 100.0 87.1 97.7 90.4 100.0 85.0 100.0 67.3 58.5 59.6 100.0 100.0 96.3 83.9 63.8 100.0 100.0 59.5 80.2 50.5 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 85.5 100.3 100.0 87.0 100.0 88.0 77.5 86.9 100.0 100.0
balance 0 0 12.9 2.3 9.6 0.0 15.0 0 32.7 41.5 40.4 0 0 3.7 16.1 36.2 0 0 40.5 19.8 49.5 0 0 0 0 14.5 -0.3 0 13.0 0 12.0 22.5 13.1 0 0
Respondents 2000 2010 2040 2000 2017 2078 1984 1000 1000 2079 2511 2000 3011 5009 1000 3118 3108 1502 1000 3038
Margin for error 2.2% 2.2% 2.0% 2.3% ± 2.2% ≤ 4.0% ≤ 4.0% ± 2.2% 2.0% 2.8% ± 2.2% ± 1.5% 4% ± 2.2% ± 2.2% ± 2.5% ± 3.2% ± 1.8%
* 2004 presidential election final results.
** Notional second round of presidential elections.
December 18, 2007 Tymoshenko elected as Prime Minister of Ukraine.[171]

International observers

The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry expected (in November 2009) that some 600 international observers will be monitoring the elections.[172] The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) will send around 600 long-term and 60 short-term observers to Ukraine to monitor the presidential elections, Ukraine had submitted an invitation to the OSCE to monitor the elections.[173] This electoral observation mission is headed by Swiss diplomat Heidi Tagliavini was officially opened on November 26, 2009.[174] On January 12, 2009 the OSCE where not satisfied with the level of funding for salaries and transport services.[175]

The European Union member-states will send over 700 observers to monitor the elections.[176] The Canada Ukraine Foundation[177] (a Canadian NGO[178]) and the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) will also send observers.[179] The PACE delegation is lead by Hungarian politician Matyas Eorsi.[180] Late November the PACE delegation was sceptical the elections would meet the organization's standards.[180] On December 8, 2009 Renate Wohlwend, co-rapporteur of PACE stated that PACE might continue to monitor Ukrainian politics after the country's presidential election.[181] Wohlwend had also called on the Ukrainian parliament to amend a law on the presidential elections as soon as possible. Wohlwend expressed concern over the inclusion of a provision in Ukraine's electoral legislation giving the election commission the right to amend the electoral rolls on the day of the ballot. She expressed concern this could allow the rigging of the election results.[182]

The Polish European Center of Geopolitical Analysis did send 20 observers to monitor signs of xenophobia during the presidential election campaign.[183]

On December 9, 2009 candidate Victor Yanukovych at a meeting with an OSCE election observation mission stated that he is afraid Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko might rig the presidential election.[184]

A total of 450 official observers from the European Network of Election Monitoring Organizations (ENEMO) will monitor the elections.[185]

Paweł Kowal lead the delegation of the European Parliament's observers; this delegation included ten people, who cooperated closely with the delegations of observers from the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly, the Council of Europe, the NATO Parliamentary Assembly, and the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR).[186]

A total of 3,149 international observers will monitor the January 17 presidential election in Ukraine.[187][188]

References and footnotes

  1. ^ VR appointed regular election of President of Ukraine for January 17, 2010, UNIAN (June 23, 2009)
  2. ^ Parliament sets January 17, 2010 as presidential election date, Interfax-Ukraine (June 23, 2009)
  3. ^ a b c Ukraine's presidential candidates to be nominated from Oct. 20 to Nov. 6, Kyiv Post (October 2, 2009)
  4. ^ Law on Presidential Elections, CEC (Ukrainian)
  5. ^ Law on Presidential Elections, Venice Commission
  6. ^ VR reduced term of presidential campaign from 120 to 90 days, UNIAN (July 24, 2009)
  7. ^ MPs override veto on presidential election, For-Ua (August 21, 2009)
  8. ^ Law on presidential elections will be amended during election campaign, says Yuschenko's secretariat, Kyiv Post (August 21, 2009)
  9. ^ Ukraine's presidential elections will not be disrupted, Kyiv Post (September 25, 2009)
  10. ^ Tymoshenko will not protest presidential election outcome, ForUm (September 25, 2009)
  11. ^ Ex-president excludes third round of presidential elections, National Radio Ukraine (September 25, 2009)
  12. ^ CEC formed 225 territorial election districts, UNIAN (October 19, 2009)
  13. ^ Constitutional court rules on Law of President elections, UNIAN (October 20, 2009)
  14. ^ Ruling 26/2009 Compliance with the Constitution of Ukraine (constitutionality) of certain provisions of laws of Ukraine "On elections of President of Ukraine" On State Register of Voters, "" On Amending Certain Legislative Acts of Ukraine on the presidential elections in Ukraine and the Code of Administrative Procedure Ukraine, Constitutional Court of Ukraine (October 19, 2009)
  15. ^ Ukraine's CEC forms 113 foreign polling stations for presidential elections, Kyiv Post (December 22, 2009)
  16. ^ Tymoshenko to appeal against CEC decision permitting home voting during presidential election, Kyiv Post (January 5, 2010)
  17. ^ Presidential direct election to cost Ukraine over 1.5 Billion UAH, For-ua (July 29, 2009)
  18. ^ Central Election Commission cuts expenditure on presidential election by Hr 17.3 million, Kyiv Post (November 26, 2009)
  19. ^ How much for today’s president?, proUa (August 26, 2009)
  20. ^ Presidential candidates will spend at least USD 1 billion on election campaign in Ukraine, ForUm(October 20, 2009)
  21. ^ Official text (Ukrainian),CEC
  22. ^ Foreign polling stations for Ukrainian presidential elections to be set up by Dec. 9, Kyiv Post (November 20, 2009)
  23. ^ Yushchenko appeals parliament’s decision to call presidential election for Oct. 25, UNIAN (April 8, 2009)
  24. ^ Ukraine court rules election date unconstitutional, PR-inside.com (May 13, 2009)
  25. ^ Yanukovych agrees with Yuschenko on presidential election date, Interfax-Ukraine (May 14, 2009)
  26. ^ Court declares unconstitutional parliament's resolution calling presidential polls for October 25, 2009, Interfax-Ukraine (May 13, 2009)
  27. ^ Constitutional Court rules against presidential poll date, UNIAN (May 13, 2009)
  28. ^ All doubles are eliminated – Lutsenko, UNIAN (September 21, 2009)
  29. ^ a b Regions Party worried about numerous inaccuracies in state register of voters, Interfax-Ukraine (September 21, 2009)
  30. ^ Candidates to be numbered in ballot paper for voting at elections, Kyiv Post (December 16, 2009)
  31. ^ MP Bohoslovska quits Party of Regions, UNIAN (May 25, 2009)
  32. ^ MP Bohoslovska nominates herself for president, Kyiv Post (October 20, 2009)
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  37. ^ On October 16, 2009 Anatoliy Hrytsenko claimed he had collected the UAH 2.503 million required for him to register as a presidential candidate. Source: Hrytsenko collects UAH 2.5 million to register as presidential candidate, Interfax-Ukraine (October 16, 2009)
  38. ^ Hrytsenko submits documents to register as presidential nominee, Interfax-Ukraine (October 21, 2009)
  39. ^ Run-off in Ukraine's presidential election inevitable - analysts, ITAR-TASS (October 19, 2009)
  40. ^ Ukrainian People's Party nominates its leader Kostenko for president, Kyiv Post (October 24, 2009)
  41. ^ http://www.etaiwannews.com/etn/news_content.php?id=984544&lang=eng_news
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  45. ^ http://photo.unian.net/eng/themes/15200, Unian.net (October 31, 2009)
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  48. ^ Central Election Commission registers Uzhgorod mayor as presidential candidate, Kyiv Post (November 13, 2009)
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  53. ^ a b CEC registers two more candidates for Ukraine's president, Interfax-Ukraine (November 6, 2009)
  54. ^ (Ukrainian) Народно-демократическая партия подала в ЦИК документы для регистрации лидера НДП Людмилы Супрун кандидатом в президенты, People's Democratic Party (November 6, 2009)
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  58. ^ "Tigipko at the presidential elections will be supported by the Labour Party" (in Russian). Persho Dzherelo. http://jerelo.com.ua/ru/president_election_ukr/100346. Retrieved 2009-06-15.  
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  60. ^ Sylna Ukrayina party to support Tihipko in presidential elections, Kyiv Post (November 28, 2009)
  61. ^ "Nationalists put Tyahnybok out to become president" (in Ukrainian). TSN.ua. May 24, 2009. http://tsn.ua/ua/ukrayina/natsionalisti-visunuli-tyagniboka-v-prezidenti.html. Retrieved 2009-06-15.  
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  65. ^ Party Of Regions Nominates Yanukovych As Its Presidential Candidate, Ukrainian News (October 23, 2009)
  66. ^ [http://www.kyivpost.com/news/nation/detail/51360/ CEC to consider Yanukovych's registration as presidential candidate on Wednesday CEC to consider Yanukovych's registration as presidential candidate on Wednesday], Kyiv Post (October 27, 2009)
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  68. ^ "Yatsenyuk, a Yushchenko clone, will bring stagnation". Taras Kuzio. Kyiv Post. http://www.kyivpost.com/blogs/bloggers/tarasgkuzio. Retrieved 2009-04-04.  
  69. ^ "The Rise And Fall (And Rise?) Of Arseniy Yatsenyuk". Andrew Wilson. Radio Free Europe. http://www.rferl.org/content/The_Rise_And_Fall_And_Rise_Of_Arseniy_Yatsenyuk/1854794.html. Retrieved 2009-09-18.  
  70. ^ "Yatseniuk registers as presidential candidate". Interfax-Ukraine. Kyiv Post. http://www.kyivpost.com/nation/51059. Retrieved 2009-10-21.  
  71. ^ 16 applications have been rejected for registration as presidential candidates, Kyiv Post (November 13, 2009)
  72. ^ CEC Refuses To Register Kulychenko, Subbotin, Polyschuk, Honcharenko, Melnyk As Presidential Candidates, Ukrainian News (October 30, 2009)
  73. ^ CEC denies registration to four more contenders for Ukraine's presidency, Kyiv Post (November 3, 2009)
  74. ^ (Russian) Украина обречена либо на распад, либо на революцию. Для украинской власти Конституция Украины – туалетная бумажка. Заявление Лидера ПСПУ Наталии Витренко, Official website of Natalia Vitrenko (November 11, 2009)
  75. ^ Eighteen to run for Ukraine's presidency, Interfax-Ukraine (November 12, 2009)
  76. ^ (Ukrainian) Від анти-кризи до армійських наметів та "фашистської загрози", Ukrayinska Pravda (September 3, 2009)
  77. ^ a b c Eurasia Daily Monitor, The Jamestown Foundation — October 1, 2009 — Volume 6, Issue 180, The Jamestown Foundation (October 01, 2009 )
  78. ^ See how they run, proUA (September 2, 2009)
  79. ^ "Surviving the Crisis in Ukraine (American Progress Forum Video)", Center for American Progress, July 30, 2009, http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2009/07/ukraine_event.html  
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  81. ^ "Yatsenyuk will be on the ballot for the office of President of Ukraine". Korrespondent.net. April 5, 2009. http://korrespondent.net/ukraine/politics/795471. Retrieved 2009-04-07.  
  82. ^ "Presidential race: Young candidate so far not candidate of the young". Kyiv Post. August 13, 2009. http://www.kyivpost.com/nation/46930. Retrieved 2009-08-13.  
  83. ^ Yushchenko plots his premier's removal, Oxford Analytica (March 11, 2008)
  84. ^ Tymoshenko accuses Yuschenko of obstructing executive authorities' teamwork, Interfax-Ukraine (February 6, 2009)
  85. ^ Yuschenko demands immediate amendments to 2009 budget to save Ukraine's economy – televised address to nation, Interfax-Ukraine (January 30, 2009)
  86. ^ Yushchenko, Tymoshenko criticize each other (photo-report), UNIAN (February 11, 2009)
  87. ^ Agreement with Russia threatens Ukraine’s security - President, UNIAN (February 10, 2009)
  88. ^ Presidential secretariat considers PM's report "theatrical performance", Interfax-Ukraine (February 5, 2009)
  89. ^ Yushchenko calls on Oblast leaders to work out joint plan of actions, UNIAN (June 10, 2009)
  90. ^ Tymoshenko: Political Competition Accounts For Conflict With Yuschenko, Ukrainian News Agency (February 11, 2009)
  91. ^ Ukrainian speaker condemns Kyiv's internal bickering, UNIAN, (February 11, 2009)
  92. ^ Yuschenko Called On Politicians To Stop Presidential Election Campaign Until July, Ukrainian News Agency (February 27, 2009)
  93. ^ Interview with the president, Kyiv Post (February 25, 2009)
  94. ^ Tymoshenko: Yushchenko, Yatseniuk, and Yanukovych have one headquarters for three, UNIAN (June 16, 2009)
  95. ^ Yuschenko and Yatseniuk are 'technical candidates' for Yanukovych, says Tymoshenko, Interfax-Ukraine (June 16, 2009)
  96. ^ Tymoshenko Says Yuschenko To Be Yatseniuk's Technical Candidate, Ukrainian News Agency (June 16, 2009)
  97. ^ Tymoshenko says “there is team work” between she and President, UNIAN (June 22, 2009)
  98. ^ Address to the President of Ukraine Victor Yushchenko, Kremlin.ru (August 11, 2009)
  99. ^ Relations between Russia and Ukraine: a New Era Must Begin, Video - Russian President (August 11, 2009)
  100. ^ UPDATE 3-Russia's Medvedev wades into Ukraine polls, Reuters (August 11, 2009)
  101. ^ Medvedev lambasts Ukraine leader , BBC News (August 11, 2009)
  102. ^ No hope for normalizing relations with Russia under current leadership, says Ukraine's opposition leader, Interfax-Ukraine (August 11, 2009)
  103. ^ Medvedev's statement shows Russia wants to impact presidential campaign in Ukraine, says pro-Yuschenko MP, Interfax-Ukraine (August 11, 2009)
  104. ^ Yatseniuk says Yuschenko has given grounds to call his policy anti-Russian, Interfax-Ukraine (August 11, 2009)
  105. ^ Medvedev's statement may be 'to Yuschenko's advantage,' says Tihipko, Interfax-Ukraine (August 11, 2009)
  106. ^ Medvedev's message to Yuschenko could be used in election campaign to split Ukraine, says speaker, Interfax-Ukraine (August 11, 2009)
  107. ^ Artist included Ruslana, Oleksandr Ponomaryov, Ani Lorak, Potap and Nastia Kamenskikh, Tina Karol, Natalia Mogilevska, Iryna Bilyk, TIK, TNMK, “Druha Rika”, Mad Heads XL. See the concert here
  108. ^ Events by themes: Allukrainian round ”With Ukraine in a heart!”. UNIAN
  109. ^ Mogilevska went to Tymoshenko, UNIAN (September 11, 2008)
  110. ^ Four parties unite to participate in presidential election, Interfax-Ukraine (September 14, 2009)
  111. ^ Bloc of left and center-left forces to nominate CPU Leader for Ukraine's president, Interfax-Ukraine (October 3, 2009)
  112. ^ Western Ukrainian intelligentsia calls on candidates for president to withdraw in favor of Tymoshenko, Interfax-Ukraine (October 1, 2009)
  113. ^ Vannykova: Yuschenko warns against attempts to monopolize radio and TV broadcasting, Kyiv Post (October 6, 2009)
  114. ^ Social-Democratic Party supports Symonenko as single candidate for president post from left political forces, Kyiv Post (October 17, 2009)
  115. ^ Parliament votes to remove Immunity, UNIAN (October 20, 2009)
  116. ^ Yatseniuk loses fresh-face label, popularity after his financial backers exposed, Kyiv Post (October 22, 2009)
  117. ^ Flu epidemic in Ukraine may require postponement of elections, Kyiv Post (November 6, 2009)
  118. ^ WHO experts forecast three waves of A/H1N1 flu in Ukraine, Kyiv Post (November 6, 2009)
  119. ^ Emergency ministry sees no grounds for state of emergency, Kyiv Post (November 6, 2009)
  120. ^ Yushchenko: there are no grounds for state of emergency, UNIAN (November 9, 2009)
  121. ^ Ukraine president: no reason to delay vote over flu, UNIAN (November 9, 2009)
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  123. ^ National Council: Ukrainian TV and radio companies not giving equal conditions to presidential candidates, Kyiv Post (December 3, 2009)
  124. ^ EPP calls on Ukraine's democratic forces to unite around most democratic candidate, Interfax-Ukraine (December 9, 2009)
  125. ^ Yanukovych vows to gather people on Maidan if election results are rigged, Interfax-Ukraine (December 11, 2009)
  126. ^ Ukrainians blame Yuschenko (47%)and Tymoshenko (22%) for creating economic mess, Kyiv Post (August 20, 2009)
  127. ^ Poll: over 40 percent of Ukrainians prefer Collective Security Treaty Organization , 12.5 percent favor NATO] (November 26, 2009)
  128. ^ Relations between Russia and Ukraine: a New Era Must Begin, Demitry Medvedev (August 11, 2009)
  129. ^ Yushchenko calling on Medvedev to intensify Russian-Ukrainian dialog, Kyiv Post (August 19, 2009)
  130. ^ Experts: Presidential campaign characterized by poor programs of candidates, Kyiv Post (November 23, 2009)
  131. ^ Election watchers worried by lack of independent exit poll; survey essential to deterring vote fraud, Kyiv Post (December 11, 2009)
  132. ^ Wolf-crying about likely vote rigging presidential candidates try to justify their future defeat, ZIK (November 24, 2009)
  133. ^ Yanukovych sure Tymoshenko will try to rig results of presidential election, Kyiv Post (December 17, 2009)
  134. ^ Tymoshenko says she will prevent Yanukovych from rigging presidential election, Kyiv Post (December 17, 2009)
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  139. ^ Poll: Most Ukrainians not planning to sell their votes in presidential election, Kyiv Post (January 12, 2010)
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  158. ^ Українці готові зробити Януковича президентом. 15% голосуватимуть "проти всіх"
  159. ^ Yanukovych tops list of presidential candidates in Ukraine – poll, UNIAN (June 2, 2009)
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  161. ^ Poll: Yanukovych, Tymoshenko still top presidential ratings, Interfax-Ukraine (August 4, 2009)
  162. ^ Socis Poll: 25% Of Ukrainians Prepared To Support Yanukovych For President, 20.5% To Vote For Tymoshenko, Ukrainian News (August 17, 2009)
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  165. ^ Yanukovych leads polls as a candidate for presidency, ForUm (October 13, 2009)
  166. ^ Poll: Yanukovych could beat Tymoshenko in run-off by a wide margin, Research & Branding Group (August, 2009)
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  171. ^ (Ukrainian)Гонка рейтингів: нові тенденції / Українська правда
  172. ^ PACE, OSCE election observers are arriving in Ukraine, Kyiv Post (November 23, 2009)
  173. ^ Over 600 OSCE observers to monitor presidential elections in Ukraine, Kyiv Post (October 13, 2009)
  174. ^ OSCE/ODIHR officially opens election observation mission for presidential election in Ukraine, Kyiv Post (November 26, 2009)
  175. ^ OSCE observer: Ukrainian election lacks funding for salaries, transport services, Kyiv Post (January 12, 2010)
  176. ^ European Union to send over 700 observers to monitor Ukraine's presidential elections, Kyiv Post (November 17, 2009)
  177. ^ Election Observer Mission 2010, Canada Ukraine Foundation
  178. ^ About us, Canada Ukraine Foundation
  179. ^ PACE delegation to pay visit to Ukraine on November 24-26, UNIAN (November 23, 2009)
  180. ^ a b European lawmakers' hopes low for Ukraine vote, Kyiv Post (November 26, 2009)
  181. ^ PACE may keep monitoring Ukraine after presidential poll, Kyiv Post (December 8, 2009)
  182. ^ PACE rapporteur calling on Ukraine's parliament to amend law on presidential elections, Kyiv Post (December 9, 2009)
  183. ^ Polish observers to arrive in Ukraine to monitor signs of xenophobia during election campaign, Kyiv Post (December 4, 2009)
  184. ^ Yanukovych claims to OSCE that Ukrainian government intends to rig presidential election, Kyiv Post (December 9, 2009)
  185. ^ 450 observers from ENEMO international mission to monitor Ukrainian elections, Kyiv Post (December 15, 2009)
  186. ^ Kowal to head delegation of European Parliament's observers for elections, Kyiv Post (December 16, 2009)
  187. ^ Central Election Commission fails to register over 2,000 official observers from Georgia, Interfax-Ukraine (January 11, 2010)
  188. ^ Over 3,000 international observers registered for Ukrainian presidential election, Kyiv Post (January 11, 2010)

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