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|United States presidential election, 2012
|November 6, 2012
|One projection of the Electoral College map for the 2012, 2016, and 2020 elections.
The United States presidential election of 2012 is the next United States presidential election, to be held on Tuesday, November 6, 2012. It will be the 57th quadrennial presidential election in which presidential electors, who will actually elect the President and the Vice President of the United States on December 17, 2012, will be chosen. Democratic President Barack Obama will be eligible to run for his second and final term during this election.
The 2012 presidential election will coincide with the United States Senate elections where 33 races will be occurring as well as the United States House of Representatives elections to elect the members for the 113th Congress. The election will also encompass eleven gubernatorial races as well as many state legislature races.
Electoral College changes
The 2010 Census will ultimately decide how the electoral map will be laid out for the 2012 election, but population projections based upon Census updates give an estimate of how the Electoral College vote apportionment will change. The Census occurs every ten years and is the basis for electoral vote reapportionment based on relative state population changes. According to a study based on the 2009 population estimates, the likely changes are as follows.
Safe Democratic States (Democratic 2000, 2004, 2008)
- Illinois - 1 fewer vote
- Massachusetts - 1 fewer vote
- Michigan - 1 fewer vote
- Minnesota - 1 fewer vote
- New Jersey - 1 fewer vote
- New York - 1 fewer vote
- Pennsylvania - 1 fewer vote
- Washington - 1 more vote
Safe Republican States (Republican 2000, 2004, 2008)
- Arizona - 1 more votes
- Georgia - 1 more vote
- Louisiana - 1 fewer vote
- South Carolina - 1 more vote
- Texas - 4 more votes
- Utah - 1 more vote
- Florida - 1 more vote
- Iowa - 1 fewer vote
- Nevada - 1 more vote
- Ohio - 2 fewer votes
States in green represent states that are predicted to gain votes. States in maroon represent states that are predicted to lose votes. Based on the 2008 presidential election results, this would give the Democratic Party a net loss of seven electoral votes, for a national total of 358, and the Republican Party a net gain of seven electoral votes, for a national total of 180.
Republican Party Ohio plan
The Republican Party decided in 2008 to implement an Ohio plan that would divide the primary states in their nominating process into three tiers: early states, small states, and large states. It would allow the early states to retain their status and tradition of being states that vote first. By the end of February 2012, nineteen small states (in terms of the Electoral College) would be allowed to vote. In March, the last states, the largest ones, would then have their primaries.
The 2012 Republican National Convention is scheduled take place the week of August 27, 2012.In February 2010, the Republican National Committee announced it had narrowed its list of possible locations for the event to three cities: Phoenix, Salt Lake City, and Tampa.
As of March 2010, no dates have been scheduled for the 2012 Democratic National Convention. Charlotte and Dallas have shown interest in bidding to be the host site for the event.
Tampa and Phoenix have expressed interest in vying to be the host site for either party's 2012 convention.
Considering previous national conventions, it is likely that parties will avoid their conventions coinciding with the 2012 Summer Olympics in London, which will run from July 27 to August 12. There has been a trend in recent cycles toward holding the conventions later in the summer.
The following are individuals who are or have been the subject of speculation in prominent media sources as being possible presidential contenders in the 2012 election. The speculation may stem from noted media analysts and commentators, or from actions or comments made by the individuals themselves — which suggest the possibility of a presidential run — as reported in reliable media sources.
Speculated Democratic Party candidates
- President Barack Obama is eligible for a second term. Since 1972, every incumbent President eligible for re-election has been so nominated by his party.
Some liberal Democrats have suggested a potential primary challenge owing to frustration at Obama's action on the War in Afghanistan as well as on single-payer health care, public option, Medicare and Medicaid expansion, and removal of the health insurance industry antitrust exemption made during attempts at healthcare reform.
While the President has made no formal announcement or taken official actions regarding a re-election campaign, Politico reported in February 2010 that a number of his top advisors had begun "quietly laying the groundwork for the 2012 reelection campaign." 
Speculated Republican Party candidates
No one has formally announced his or her candidacy for the Republican Party nomination. The following are individuals that have been speculated about as possible candidates.
Speculated Libertarian Party candidates
No one has formally announced his or her candidacy for the Libertarian Party nomination. The following are individuals that are or have been speculated about as possible candidates.
Speculated independent candidates
The following are individuals that are or have been speculated about as possible independent candidates.
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