The Full Wiki

United States presidential election, 2012: Wikis

Advertisements
  
  
  

Note: Many of our articles have direct quotes from sources you can cite, within the Wikipedia article! This article doesn't yet, but we're working on it! See more info or our list of citable articles.

Encyclopedia

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2008 United States 2016 ›
United States presidential election, 2012
November 6, 2012
Proposed Electoral College 2012.svg
One projection of the Electoral College map for the 2012, 2016, and 2020 elections.[1]

President-elect
TBD

The United States presidential election of 2012 is the next United States presidential election, to be held on Tuesday, November 6, 2012. It will be the 57th quadrennial presidential election in which presidential electors, who will actually elect the President and the Vice President of the United States on December 17, 2012, will be chosen. Democratic President Barack Obama will be eligible to run for his second and final term during this election.

The 2012 presidential election will coincide with the United States Senate elections where 33 races will be occurring as well as the United States House of Representatives elections to elect the members for the 113th Congress. The election will also encompass eleven gubernatorial races as well as many state legislature races.

Contents

Electoral College changes

The 2010 Census will ultimately decide how the electoral map will be laid out for the 2012 election, but population projections based upon Census updates give an estimate of how the Electoral College vote apportionment will change. The Census occurs every ten years and is the basis for electoral vote reapportionment based on relative state population changes. According to a study based on the 2009 population estimates, the likely changes are as follows.[2]

Safe Democratic States (Democratic 2000, 2004, 2008)

  • Illinois - 1 fewer vote
  • Massachusetts - 1 fewer vote
  • Michigan - 1 fewer vote
  • Minnesota - 1 fewer vote
  • New Jersey - 1 fewer vote
  • New York - 1 fewer vote
  • Pennsylvania - 1 fewer vote
  • Washington - 1 more vote

Safe Republican States (Republican 2000, 2004, 2008)

  • Arizona - 1 more votes
  • Georgia - 1 more vote
  • Louisiana - 1 fewer vote
  • South Carolina - 1 more vote
  • Texas - 4 more votes
  • Utah - 1 more vote

Swing States

  • Florida - 1 more vote
  • Iowa - 1 fewer vote
  • Nevada - 1 more vote
  • Ohio - 2 fewer votes

States in green represent states that are predicted to gain votes. States in maroon represent states that are predicted to lose votes. Based on the 2008 presidential election results, this would give the Democratic Party a net loss of seven electoral votes, for a national total of 358, and the Republican Party a net gain of seven electoral votes, for a national total of 180.

Election changes

Advertisements

Republican Party Ohio plan

The Republican Party decided in 2008 to implement an Ohio plan that would divide the primary states in their nominating process into three tiers: early states, small states, and large states. It would allow the early states to retain their status and tradition of being states that vote first. By the end of February 2012, nineteen small states (in terms of the Electoral College) would be allowed to vote. In March, the last states, the largest ones, would then have their primaries.[3]

Presidential conventions

The 2012 Republican National Convention is scheduled take place the week of August 27, 2012.[4]In February 2010, the Republican National Committee announced it had narrowed its list of possible locations for the event to three cities: Phoenix, Salt Lake City, and Tampa.[5]

As of March 2010, no dates have been scheduled for the 2012 Democratic National Convention. Charlotte[6] and Dallas[7] have shown interest in bidding to be the host site for the event.

Tampa[8][9] and Phoenix[10] have expressed interest in vying to be the host site for either party's 2012 convention.

Considering previous national conventions, it is likely that parties will avoid their conventions coinciding with the 2012 Summer Olympics in London, which will run from July 27 to August 12. There has been a trend in recent cycles toward holding the conventions later in the summer.

Speculated candidates

The following are individuals who are or have been the subject of speculation in prominent media sources as being possible presidential contenders in the 2012 election. The speculation may stem from noted media analysts and commentators, or from actions or comments made by the individuals themselves — which suggest the possibility of a presidential run — as reported in reliable media sources.

Speculated Democratic Party candidates

  • President Barack Obama is eligible for a second term. Since 1972, every incumbent President eligible for re-election has been so nominated by his party.

Some liberal Democrats have suggested a potential primary challenge owing to frustration at Obama's action on the War in Afghanistan as well as on single-payer health care, public option, Medicare and Medicaid expansion, and removal of the health insurance industry antitrust exemption made during attempts at healthcare reform.[11][12][13]

While the President has made no formal announcement or taken official actions regarding a re-election campaign, Politico reported in February 2010 that a number of his top advisors had begun "quietly laying the groundwork for the 2012 reelection campaign." [14][15]

Speculated Republican Party candidates

No one has formally announced his or her candidacy for the Republican Party nomination. The following are individuals that have been speculated about as possible candidates.

Speculated Libertarian Party candidates

No one has formally announced his or her candidacy for the Libertarian Party nomination. The following are individuals that are or have been speculated about as possible candidates.

Independent candidates

Speculated independent candidates

The following are individuals that are or have been speculated about as possible independent candidates.

See also

References

  1. ^ Benson, Clark (2007-12-27). "Displacement of Katrina Victims Still Has Impact:Apportionment in 2010". Polidata. http://www.polidata.org/census/wprgl26a.pdf. Retrieved 2008-03-21. 
  2. ^ "Congressional Apportionment: 2010 Projections Based Upon State Estimates as of July 1, 2009". Clark H. Bensen. 2009-12-23. http://www.polidata.org/news.htm#20091223. Retrieved 2010-02-02. 
  3. ^ "GOP Weighs Calendar Changes for 2012". Washington Post. http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2008/04/republicans_weigh_calendar_cha.html. 
  4. ^ Ambinder, Marc (March 3, 2010) "2012 News: RNC Has Its Convention Date", The Atlantic. Retrieved March 3, 2010.
  5. ^ "RNC Narrows Convention Site List to Three". FOX News. http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/02/01/rnc-narrows-convention-site-list/?test=latestnews. Retrieved 2/1/2010. 
  6. ^ (December 2, 2009) "Blue city. Blue state. Blue convention?", News & Observer. Retrieved December 2, 2009.
  7. ^ "Dallas officials consider bidding for 2012 political conventions". The Dallas Morning News. 31 August 2008. http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/news/politics/local/stories/083008dnmetconventionbids.36ff96b.html. Retrieved 28 December 2008. 
  8. ^ (November 10, 2009) "Republicans holding "Interested Bid Cities" meeting today in Washington". DemConWatchblog.com.. http://www.demconwatchblog.com/diary/2758/republicans-holding-interested-bid-cities-meeting-today-in-washington. Retrieved November 10, 2009. 
  9. ^ Jackovics, Ted (November 5, 2009) "Democrats ask Tampa to apply to host convention", The Tampa Tribune. Retrieved on November 13, 2009.
  10. ^ Wong, Scott; Berry, Jahna (January 14, 2010) "Phoenix vies to host GOP, Dems' 2012 conventions", AZcentral.com/12 News. Retrieved January 14, 2010.
  11. ^ "'Countdown with Keith Olbermann' for Thursday, September 3, 2009". MSNBC. 2009-09-03. Archived from the original on 2009-12-17. http://www.webcitation.org/5m5sjRQqS. Retrieved 2009-12-17. "No—no, no. Because if he's compromise and everything so far, and as self-defeating as it might be, the progressive caucus and progressives would abandon him, if necessary, if this would be the policy of this administration into 2012. If it's necessary to find somebody else to run against him, I think they‘d do it no matter how destructive that might seem at face value." 
  12. ^ Fisher, Max (2009-12-02). "Could Obama Face 2012 Primary Challenge Over Afghanistan?". The Atlantic. http://www.theatlanticwire.com/opinions/view/opinion/Could-Obama-Face-2012-Primary-Challenge-Over-Afghanistan-1776. Retrieved 2009-12-17. 
  13. ^ "'Countdown with Keith Olbermann' for Wednesday, December 16th, 2009". MSNBC. 2009-12-16. Archived from the original on 2009-12-17. http://www.webcitation.org/5m5sn0Oej. Retrieved 2009-12-17. "Nothing short of your re-election and the re-election of dozens of Democrats in the House and the Senate hinges in large part on this bill. Make it palatable or make it go away or make yourself ready, not merely for a horrifying campaign in 2012, but for the distinct possibility also of a primary challenge." 
  14. ^ Allen, Mike (February 24, 2010) "Exclusive: White House privately plots 2012 campaign run", Politico. Retrieved March 10, 2010.
  15. ^ Diemer, Tom (February 24, 2010) "Obama Re-Election Effort Already Taking Shape", Politics Daily. Retrieved March 10, 2010.
  16. ^ Akers, Mary Ann (June 9, 2009). "Haley Barbour Enters the 2012 Thicket". The Washington Post. http://voices.washingtonpost.com/sleuth/2009/06/haley_barbour_enters_the_2012.html?. Retrieved June 11, 2009. 
  17. ^ Schaller, Tom (January 19, 2010) "On the Future and Branding of Scott Brown", FiveThirtyEight.com. Retrieved January 20, 2010.
  18. ^ Sammon, Bill (January 4, 2009). "Bush 41: Jeb Bush for President". Fox News Channel. http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/01/04/bush-jeb-bush-president/. Retrieved June 27, 2009. 
  19. ^ Newton-Small, Jay (February 23, 2009). "Eric Cantor: Giving the GOP Back Its Mojo". Time. http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1881286,00.html. Retrieved June 12, 2009. 
  20. ^ Riechmann, Deb (May 23, 2009). "Don't call ex-Vice President Cheney a has-been". Yahoo! News. http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090523/ap_on_go_pr_wh/us_cheney_no_exit. Retrieved June 12, 2009. 
  21. ^ Taranto, James (August 31, 2009). "Cheney for President". Wall Street Journal. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204731804574384723887160470.html?mod=rss_opinion_main. Retrieved September 1, 2009. 
  22. ^ Cillizza, Chris (November 25, 2009) "The Fix", The Washington Post. Retrieved November 25, 2009.
  23. ^ Luchtblau, Eric (January 19, 2010) "Interviews Begin for Ex-Aides to Ensign" Politics Daily. Retrieved January 21, 2010.
  24. ^ Romano, Andrew (November 26, 2009). "The Governor of Puerto Rico ... for President?". Newsweek. http://blog.newsweek.com/blogs/thegaggle/archive/2009/11/25/absurdly-premature-2012-watch-vol-2-the-governor-of-puerto-rico-for-president.aspx. Retrieved November 26, 2009. 
  25. ^ Nolan, Jim (March 5, 2009). "Gingrich, in Ashland, ponders White House run; says Cantor will be Speaker someday". Richmond Times-Dispatch. http://www.timesdispatch.com/rtd/news/local/article/NEWTGATER05_20090305-193603/222878/. Retrieved June 10, 2009. 
  26. ^ Baier, Bret (July 2, 2009). "'Special Report' Panel on Potential GOP Contenders for 2012 Presidential Race". FOXNews.com. http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,529880,00.html. Retrieved July 8, 2009. 
  27. ^ Memoli, Mike (June 10, 2009). "In Iowa, Huckabee Calls For "Clarity Of Conservative Principles"". RealClearPolitics. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/politics_nation/2009/06/in_iowa_huckabee_calls_for_cla.html. Retrieved June 25, 2009. 
  28. ^ Lewis, Bob (December 10, 2008). "La. Gov. Jindal: 2012 presidential bid unlikely". Fox News Channel. http://origin2.foxnews.com/wires/2008Dec10/0,4670,Jindal2012,00.html. Retrieved June 10, 2009. 
  29. ^ Emery, Marc (November 16, 2008) "Gary Johnson for President in 2012", Western Standard.ca. Retrieved on August 5, 2009.
  30. ^ Volpe, Paul (July 3, 2009). "Palin To Resign, Focus on Presidential Run". The Washington Post. http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/governors/palin-will-not-run-for-reelect.html. Retrieved July 3, 2009. 
  31. ^ Kornacki, Steve (December 4, 2009) "Pataki Again?", New York Observer. Retrieved December 9, 2009.
  32. ^ Steinhauser, Paul (March 2, 2009). "No third run by Ron Paul for the White House?". CNN. http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2009/03/02/no-third-run-by-ron-paul-for-the-white-house/. Retrieved June 10, 2009. 
  33. ^ Bedard, Paul (June 12, 2009). "Minnesota's Pawlenty May Challenge Obama for President in 2012". U.S. News & World Report. http://www.usnews.com/blogs/washington-whispers/2009/06/12/minnesotas-pawlenty-may-challenge-obama-for-president-in-2012.html. Retrieved June 18, 2009. 
  34. ^ Martin, Jonathan (May 7, 2008). "Another entrant for 2012/2016?". The Politico. http://www.politico.com/blogs/jonathanmartin/0508/Another_entrant_for_20122016.html. Retrieved June 14, 2009. 
  35. ^ (November 17, 2010) "GOP Dark Horses for 2012: Texas Governor Rick Perry", RealClearPolitics. Retrieved February 3, 2010.
  36. ^ Ackerman, Spencer. "Petraeus '12". American Prospect. http://www.prospect.org/cs/articles?article=petraeus_12. Retrieved January 27, 2009. 
  37. ^ "Like Ike: Petraeus for President?". Mother Jones. http://motherjones.com/politics/2007/09/ike-petraeus-president. Retrieved January 27, 2009. 
  38. ^ "Is Romney the man to save GOP in 2012?". CNN. November 13, 2008. http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/11/13/romney.future/index.html. Retrieved June 15, 2009. 
  39. ^ (January 22, 2010) "S.C. Politics Today: Sanford spotted hiking Capitol Hill", The Sun News. Retrieved January 24, 2010.
  40. ^ Martin, Jonathan (August 11, 2009)"Rick Santorum dips toes in 2012 Iowa waters", Politico.com. Retrieved on August 11, 2009.
  41. ^ Lewis, Matt (December 11, 2009) "John Thune: The GOP's Answer to Obama?", Politics Daily. Retrieved December 11, 2009.
  42. ^ Meyer, Jim (June 1, 2009)"Wayne Root Launches Libertarian Radio Show", NewsMax.com. Retrieved on August 5, 2009.
  43. ^ Feather, Carl E. (January 14, 2009) "In the 2008 presidential campaign, it was Joe the Plumber. In 2012, it’s going to be Joe the Painter", The Star Beacon. Retrieved February 23, 2010.
  44. ^ Place, Rich (August 14, 2009) "Not Your ‘Average Joe’", The Post-Journal. Retrieved February 23, 2010
  45. ^ Benjamin, Elizabeth (January 26, 2010) "Bloomberg On The Meaning Of Wolfson", New York Daily News. Retrieved January 28, 2010.
  46. ^ Kugler, Sara (January 26, 2010) "NYC mayor has 'no plans' for 2012 White House run", The Post-Star. Retrieved January 28, 2010.
  47. ^ Memmot, Mark (November 24, 2009) "Lou Dobbs Hints At White House Run In 2012 As An Independent", NPR.org. Retrieved on November 24, 2009.
  48. ^ Schwab, Nikki (May 2, 2009) "Nader: Obama Ignores Me and Other Progressives", U.S News & World Report online. Retrieved on August 6, 2009.
  49. ^ Dann, Carrie (June 18, 2009). "Jesse Ventura 2012?". MSNBC. http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/09/02/1328026.aspx. Retrieved December 28, 2008. 

Simple English

The 2012 United States presidental election will be on November 6, 2012. There will also be elections for the U.S. Senate and U.S. House of Representatives. There will be several changes between the 2008 election and the 2012 election. For one thing, the Republican Party has switched around the order of the state primary elections. Also, the Electoral College will be changed because of the 2010 Census. Several states will lose votes, and several states will gain votes.

Contents

Electoral College changes

As a result of the 2010 Census, several states will gain electoral votes and several states will lose electoral votes. Here are the states that will gain or lose:

Gaining Votes

  • Texas +4
  • Florda +2
  • Arizona +1
  • Georgia +1
  • Nevada +1
  • South Carolina +1
  • Utah +1
  • Washington +1

Losing Votes

  • New York -2
  • Ohio -2
  • Illinois -1
  • Iowa -1
  • Louisiana -1
  • Massachusetts -1
  • Michigan -1
  • Missouri -1
  • New Jersey -1
  • Pennsylvania -1

[[File:|left|thumb|300px|What the Electoral College will look like in 2012]]

Conventions

The Republicans will hold their national convention the week of August 27 at the St. Pete Times Forum in Tampa.[1] The Democrats will hold their convention the week of September 3.

People Who Might Be Running

Democrats

Barack Obama can run for President again, and almost certainly will. While other Democrats can run against Obama in the primary elections (which decide whom the party nominates for president), it is unlikely that the Democrats will not nominate him, though many Democrats think someone should still run against him in the primary. The last time that a president running for a second term was not nominated again was in 1968, when Lyndon B. Johnson decided to stop running for a second term after he realized that he was going to lose.

Republicans

As of November, 2010, no one in the Republican Party has said that he is running for President. Many names have been considered, however. Most often mentioned are former Vice Presidential loser and “tea party” leader Sarah Palin[2], former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee.[3] Others mentioned include former Congressman Newt Gingrich, former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani, New Jersey governor Chris Christie, and Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty.[4][5] Several other Republicans, such as Scott Brown, Bobby Jindal and David Petraeus, have said that they are not running for President.[6] [7][8][9][10] [11] Recently, billionaire Donald Trump said he was thinking about running for President, most likely as a Republican [12][13]

Polls

Though the election is more than two years away, several polls have been taken about it. Most polls show Obama beating most Republicans, often by ten or more points. Recently, a few polls have shown Huckabee or Romney running fairly even with Obama. In polls taken state-by-state, Obama usually wins states he won in 2008, and Republicans usually win states that McCain won in 2008.

References

  1. Lush, Tamara (May 12, 2010) "Tampa wins bid to host 2012 GOP convention", The Associated Press. Retrieved May 13, 2010.
  2. Volpe, Paul (July 3, 2009). "Palin To Resign, Focus on Presidential Run". The Washington Post. http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/governors/palin-will-not-run-for-reelect.html. Retrieved July 3, 2009. 
  3. "Is Romney the man to save GOP in 2012?". CNN. November 13, 2008. http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/11/13/romney.future/index.html. Retrieved June 15, 2009. 
  4. Nolan, Jim (March 5, 2009). "Gingrich, in Ashland, ponders White House run; says Cantor will be Speaker someday". Richmond Times-Dispatch. http://www.timesdispatch.com/rtd/news/local/article/NEWTGATER05_20090305-193603/222878/. Retrieved June 10, 2009. 
  5. Baier, Bret (July 2, 2009). "'Special Report' Panel on Potential GOP Contenders for 2012 Presidential Race". FOXNews.com. http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,529880,00.html. Retrieved July 8, 2009. 
  6. Crimaldi, Laura (April 23, 2010) "Scott Brown rules out 2012 presidential run", Boston Herald. Retrieved April 23, 2010.
  7. Ackerman, Spencer. "Petraeus '12". American Prospect. http://www.prospect.org/cs/articles?article=petraeus_12. Retrieved January 27, 2009. 
  8. "Like Ike: Petraeus for President?". Mother Jones. http://motherjones.com/politics/2007/09/ike-petraeus-president. Retrieved January 27, 2009. 
  9. Petraeus Says He'll Never Run for Office
  10. Lewis, Bob (December 10, 2008). "La. Gov. Jindal: 2012 presidential bid unlikely". Fox News Channel. http://origin2.foxnews.com/wires/2008Dec10/0,4670,Jindal2012,00.html. Retrieved June 10, 2009. 
  11. "For GOP, no frontrunner and no worries". POLITICO. April 11, 2010. http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0410/35621_Page3.html. Retrieved April 11, 2010. ,
  12. Madison, Lucy (October 4, 2010) "Donald Trump for President in 2012?", CBS News. Retrieved October 4, 2010.
  13. Zwick, Jesse (October 4, 2010) "Donald Trump for President?", The Washington Independent. Retrieved October 4, 2010.

Advertisements






Got something to say? Make a comment.
Your name
Your email address
Message